Twitter: @GGirlSports.
The Denver Nuggets have the least odds of winning the NBA Finals (+290) and will look to advance to the Western Conference Finals. The 1st Seed Nuggets (53-29, 19-22 Away) will face off against the 4th Seed Phoenix Suns (45-37, 28-13 Home) in Game 6. The question is, can the Suns look to avoid elimination at home? These two teams will play tonight at 10 PM EST, at Footprint Center, located in Phoenix, Arizona. The matchup will air on ESPN. If you are looking for the best NBA betting odds and stats, here is information to know:
NBA Championship Odds:
Denver Nuggets: +290.
Phoenix Suns: + 1200.
NBA Conference Semifinals.
Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns (Game 6)
Denver: +110.
Phoenix: -130.
Spread: Denver +2, Phoenix - 2.
Over/Under: 211.5.
Injuries:
Denver Nuggets
G Colin Gillespie (OUT): Leg.
PG Jamal Murray (Questionable): Illness Non-Covid.
Phoenix Suns
PG Chris Paul (OUT): Groin.
C Deandre Ayton (OUT): Ribs.
Player Props
Denver Nuggets
Jamal Murray UNDER 2.5 Threes
Jamal Murray is playing fantastic basketball and is the X factor for this Nuggets team. The Denver Nuggets head into Game 6 up 3-2 on the road. Murray averages 19.1 Points and is shooting 38.5 Percent from the Three in road games this season.
Jokić is playing unbelievable basketball as well, and I don’t see the extra pressure for Murray to light it up from downtown tonight. Murray shot 2-4 from the Three in Game 5, and went 1-3, and 1-6 from downtown in games 4 and 5. In addition Jamal Murray shot 0-9 from the Three in Game 2.
Although Jamal Murray is averaging 37.8 Percent from the Three in the Playoffs, his under-hit rate is 48 Percent. He’s playing incredible; however, I don’t trust over 2.5. Give me Jamal Murray UNDER 2.5 Threes.
Nikola Jokić OVER 30.6 Points
Nikola Jokić is playing better basketball than anyone right now. He added 29 points in Game 1, 39 Points in Game 2, 30 Points in Game 3, 53 points in Game 4, and 29 points in Game 5.
He can attack inside, the midrange, and has a deadly three-point shot. In 2 Games against the Suns this season, Jokić averaged 31 Points per Game. In addition, he’s averaging 30.6 Points in the Playoffs.
The Nuggets have a great supporting cast, and another superstar in Jamal Murray. If the Nuggets want to advance tonight, I expect Jokić to lead the way and have a monster game. It will all start with him and whether he can attack early against Phoenix. Jokić’s under hit rate is 74 percent, however I like OVER 30.6 points.
Phoenix Suns
Kevin Durant OVER 5.5 Assists
This is an elimination game for the Suns and look no further than Kevin Durant to do anything he can to help this team win tonight. Durant has 21 total assists combined in the last three games against the Nuggets and does well with Devin Booker on the pick and pop. In addition, Kevin Durant is averaging 5.6 assists in the Playoffs, and 5.5 Assists at home this year. Even if Chris Paul is still out, expect Durant to score, and find his open teammates, especially Booker.
Although Durant’s over hit rate on 5.5 Assists is 34 percent, I like Kevin Durant OVER 5.5 Assists.
Devin Booker OVER 2.5 Threes
Yes, Kevin Durant is a fantastic basketball player. However, Devin Booker is playing excellent basketball, and is carrying the Suns. He’s averaging 35.9 Points in the NBA Playoffs, and 28 Points at Home. In addition, he’s able to drive to the hoop, create his own shot, and knock down threes. Booker has not shot under 50 percent of the three in this series and has no less than 3 made threes against the Nuggets.
Given this is an elimination game for the Suns, I am not sold on the Nuggets defense, and I think Booker will have no problem hitting over 2.5. Expect him to keep up the hot hand. I like Devin Booker OVER 2.5 threes.
Key Stats-Playoffs
•Denver averages 114.9. points per game.
•Phoenix averages 115.6 points per game.
•Denver ranks 5th in points allowed with 107.3 opponent points per game.
•Phoenix ranks 12th in points allowed with 115.6opponent points per game.
•Denver ranks 6th in rebounds per game with 44.7.
•Phoenix ranks 12th in rebounds per game with 41.1
•Denver ranks 1st in point differential at +7.6.
•Phoenix ranks 8th in point differential at 0.0.
•Denver ranks 2nd in blocked shots with 6.8 per game.
•Phoenix ranks 13th in blocked shots with 3.7 per game.
•Denver averages 38 percent from the 3-point range, while Phoenix averages 35.9. percent from the 3-point range.
LAST 10 GAMES + GAME PREDICTION
SPREAD: Denver +2.
-Denver covered the spread in 6 their last 10 games.
-Phoenix covered the spread in 4 of their last 10 games.
-Denver has a 50-41-1 record ATS this season.
-Phoenix has a 46-44-2 record ATS this season.
-Phoenix is 25-20-1 in HOME games ATS this season.
-Denver is 20-25-0 in AWAY games ATS this season.
Denver is fully healthy, and unfortunately the Suns aren't. The Nuggets were not a good team on the road this year, however, I think they have the star power to get it done tonight with the injuries. Give me Nuggets +2.
MONEY LINE: Denver ML
-Denver won the Money Line 7 out of their last 10 games
-Phoenix won the Money Line 6 of their last 10 games.
Although Denver is away, Deandre Ayton is listed as OUT for the Suns. This will give the Nuggets rebound advantages. I don't think the Suns can pull it off, without a playmaker and a center. Give me Nuggets Money Line.
OVER/UNDER- UNDER
-Denver Avg +/- vs O/U Line: -1.71.
-Phoenix Avg +/- vs O/U Line: -0.35
-Denver Overall O/U Record: 44-47-1
-Phoenix Overall O/U Record: 48-41-3
-Denver hit the OVER 6 times in their last 10 games.
-Phoenix hit the OVER 6 times in their last 10 games.
The Over hit 3 out of the 5 games between the Nuggets and the Suns. Although defense has been questionable on both sides, I like the UNDER here.
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Sara Jane is a full-time content creator, focusing on both college basketball, the NBA, NFL, and writer of Ballislife.com. Don’t forget to follow her on Twitter/YouTube/Twitch/Instagram: @GGirlSports.