Projecting the 2025–26 NBA MVP Race: Luka Dončić Leads a Loaded Field

Each year, the NBA’s Most Valuable Player race captures the storylines that define the league — individual brilliance, team success, and the chase for legacy. The award isn’t just about stats; it’s about timing, narrative, and the ability to dominate when it matters most.

The 2024–25 MVP race was one of the most competitive in recent memory. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder earned his first MVP after leading his team to a league-best 68–14 record. Averaging 32.7 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game, he became the first Thunder player since Kevin Durant in 2014 to take home the honor.

Gilgeous-Alexander’s victory ended a two-year run of Nikola Jokić’s dominance while further signaling the generational shift happening across the league. Jokić once again finished runner-up — his fifth straight top-two finish — while Giannis Antetokounmpo came in third, and Donovan Mitchell and LeBron James rounded out the top five.

With Jayson Tatum recovering from a torn Achilles that will sideline him for most of the season, the 2025–26 MVP field feels both familiar and wide open. At the top of that list stands a player whose time might finally have come: Luka Dončić.

Our digital cover star, Luka Doncic, ready to take his game (and the Lakers) to new levels of dominance. And this summer shred has been years in the making.https://t.co/aB19DY7rrL pic.twitter.com/bjVsf1ampI

— Men’s Health Mag (@MensHealthMag) July 28, 2025

Luka Dončić’s Reinvention in Los Angeles

Few storylines in recent NBA history have been as dramatic as Dončić’s midseason trade from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers. It ended an era in Dallas — one that included five All-NBA selections and a Finals run — and started a new chapter with one of basketball’s most storied franchises.

Before juggling the transition and coming off the most severe injury of his basketball career, Dončić finished third in MVP voting in 2023-24 and led Dallas to the NBA Finals. His averages of 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, and 9.2 rebounds over that season cemented his reputation as one of the league’s most complete offensive engines.

Now, with James sidelined to start the season, Dončić will be tasked with shouldering even more responsibility. But rather than shrink under the pressure, he appears transformed — physically sharper, mentally refreshed, and more driven than ever to deliver the kind of season that defines careers.

“This feels like a start for me,” Dončić said during training camp. “I’m way more comfortable now. Especially going to training camp, having practice with the guys — like I said, it’s a start for me. But I will feel way more comfortable now.”

A Leaner, Sharper, More Disciplined Luka

If last season showcased Dončić’s talent, this summer revealed his discipline. Long criticized for inconsistent conditioning, he responded with the most rigorous offseason of his career — one that completely reshaped his body and approach.

In interviews with ESPN and Men’s Health, Dončić detailed his two-month training program in Croatia under a stricter and more scientific plan.

“Just visually, I would say my whole body looks better,” he said. “Every summer I try my best to work on different things. Obviously, I’m very competitive. This summer was just a little bit different, you know. It kind of motivated me to be even better.”

That motivation led to a new structure. Dončić followed an intermittent fasting plan with a gluten-free, low-sugar, high-protein diet — around 250 grams of protein daily — and added boxing, cardio, and high-intensity conditioning to build endurance and agility.

Game. On. pic.twitter.com/t4CpF7Mn2P

— Los Angeles Lakers (@Lakers) October 15, 2025

The most surprising change? He walked away from basketball for a full month — something he had never done in his life.

“I actually gave up playing basketball for one month, which I’d never done in my life,” Dončić told NBC’s Today Show. “Just mentally, you know, basketball I played my whole life, so I won’t forget how to play basketball. We tried other sports. I felt like it was a good thing.”

When asked if that time off was necessary, he didn’t hesitate:

“Yeah, exactly. I needed to focus on the fitness aspect.”

That break helped Dončić reset physically and mentally, giving him a fresh perspective on training and recovery — two things he admitted he once took for granted.

A New Mental Edge

Beyond the physical transformation, Dončić’s mindset might be the most striking shift. He’s no longer focused on silencing critics. This time, it’s about longevity, leadership, and maximizing his prime.

“I mean honestly, I try not to read much, just trying to focus,” Dončić said. “I think I was still a pretty good basketball player back then, no matter what people say. I think it was the next step in my career. In the end, I’m still 26, and you know, I got a long way to go, so that was a good step in my career.”

Dončić also cited the examples of Michael Jordan and Kobe Bryant as inspirations for the sacrifices he’s now willing to make.

“They sacrificed a lot,” he said. “This year, with my team, I think we did a huge step. But this is just the start. I need to keep going. Can’t stop.”

His words echo a maturity that complements his on-court brilliance — a signal that Dončić isn’t just chasing individual dominance, but sustained excellence.

EuroBasket 2025 Was A Reminder of His Greatness

Any doubts about Dončić’s form heading into the new season were erased at EuroBasket 2025, where he delivered one of the most breathtaking individual runs in the tournament’s history.

Representing Slovenia, Dončić led all players in scoring (34.7 points per game) while adding 8.6 rebounds, 7.1 assists, and 2.7 steals across seven games. His efficiency rating of 36.6 and usage rate of 41.8 percent topped the entire field.

In Slovenia’s quarterfinal loss to Germany, Dončić posted 39 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists — a performance that further solidified his status as one of the greatest international players of his generation.

Even in defeat, his dominance was undeniable. He became the only player ranked in the top three for points, assists, and overall efficiency — a feat rarely seen in international play.

That momentum, coupled with his physical and mental rejuvenation, has set the stage for a massive NBA season.

World is NOT ready 😱 Luka Doncic absolutely DOMINATED all competition in #EuroBasket 🔥

37.4 PTS | 8.6 REB | 7.1 AST | 2.7 AST | 3.6 3PPG 🤯 pic.twitter.com/EKooBWQ8kG

— FIBA Basketball (@FIBA) September 11, 2025

The Path to MVP

Dončić’s case for MVP is straightforward: elite numbers, elevated leadership, and a franchise that needs him more than ever. With LeBron recovering and a deep supporting cast designed around his playmaking, Dončić will control the Lakers’ offense from opening night.

He’s expected to again average 30-plus points while leading one of the NBA’s most-watched teams. But this time, he has a narrative that voters can’t ignore — a superstar who transformed himself, embraced the pressure of Los Angeles, and delivered on the game’s biggest stage.

Meanwhile, the rest of the field will keep the race competitive. Gilgeous-Alexander remains a threat to repeat, Jokić’s efficiency continues to defy logic, and Anthony Edwards looms as the next great two-way star capable of carrying Minnesota. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Cade Cunningham round out the serious contenders, but the storylines all circle back to Dončić.

The Verdict

Every era eventually finds its defining moment — and every great player has a season where everything aligns.

For Luka Dončić, this feels like that season. He’s in peak shape, leading one of the most visible franchises in sports, and coming off one of the most dominant summers of his career. He’s been a prodigy, a savant, and a near-MVP. Now, he looks ready to finally take the crown.