2025-26 NBA Preview: Southwest Division

Houston Rockets

Last season: 52-30

Predicted 2025-26 record: 54-29

Tier: Western Conference contenders

Write up: The general consensus following the Rockets’ Game 7 loss to Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors in the opening round of last season’s playoffs was the Houston Rockets, despite winning 52 games and earning the No. 2 overall seed in the Western Conference, were still a star away from legitimately contending for an NBA Championship. 

Well, they got their transformative star. Sort of. Houston acquired 37-year-old Kevin Durant from the Phoenix Suns in exchange for Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks. Durant, of course, remains one of the league’s best scorers and one of the best scorers in league history at that, but he’s certainly not getting any younger and his stint with the Suns didn’t exactly produce encouraging team results. 

Regardless, I expect the Rockets to be a much better and more well-rounded offensive team with Durant’s skill set and intelligence on board. The difference in regular season win total may be negligible due to how much Houston overachieved last season, but it should be a far more formidable threat in the postseason.

Memphis Grizzlies

Last season: 47-35

Predicted 2025-26 record: 49-33

Tier: Not a team you want to face in the playoffs

Write up: The main determinant in whether the Grizzlies will have a successful season or not is the health of stars Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr., both of whom have been nursing injuries suffered either during the offseason or in training camp that have put their health in question to start the season. 

With the presumption that this doesn’t become a lingering issue for either player, the Grizzlies should be right around that 48-50 win mark that they neared last season. Keep in mind, they won 47 games last season, despite Morant missing 32 games due to injury. 

The loss of Desmond Bane, who was traded to Orlando, will be felt early on in the season while Morant and Jackson work their way back to 100 percent, but I expect Memphis to eventually find its way just fine without him. Like Houston, however, the win increase may be negligible because it overachieved in the win column in 2024-25, given the circumstances Memphis faced.

Dallas Mavericks 

Last season: 39-43

Predicted 2025-26 record: 46-36

Tier: Playoff contenders

Write up: It seems like the Mavericks are receiving the broadest range of opinions from pundits and analysts, with some very credible folks suggesting the team is a legitimate championship threat, while others question the team’s ability to make the playoffs at all if Kyrie Irving doesn’t have a prompt return from the ACL tear he suffered in March.

While I expect the Mavericks to inch near that 50-win mark, they’ll still likely have to make their way out of the play-in round, considering the strength of the Western Conference as a whole. Cooper Flagg should be an immediate impact player for Dallas, and his development has been so rapid that it isn’t far-fetched to believe he could progress into a main contributor late in the season, which would only improve the Mavs’ chances at making a splash in the postseason, regardless of how they get there.

San Antonio Spurs

Last season: 34-48

Predicted 2025-26 record: 43-39

Tier: Welcome to the postseason, Wemby

Write up: Assuming Victor Wembanyama can maintain his health late into the season, this should be the first year we see San Antonio take the leap from a team we believe will be a playoff threat in the future to a team that’s a playoff threat in the present. 

Before a scary blood clot situation in his shoulder shortened his sophomore campaign last year, Wembanyama was essentially a shoo-in to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award. Considering the fact that a superstar’s third season is widely considered the year where they make their most pivotal jump, the version of Wembanyama that we see this season could be downright scary. 

A full offseason with De’Aaron Fox in the fold should only benefit the team’s cohesion, and the addition of No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper to a backcourt that already included Fox and reigning NBA Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle is a recipe for a tangible improvement.

New Orleans Pelicans 

Last season: 21-61

Predicted 2025-26 record: 30-53

Tier: Better, but still bad

Write up: The New Orleans Pelicans remade their roster around star Zion Williamson this offseason, adding two players with NBA championship experience in Jordan Poole and Kevon Looney. While some may see that as New Orleans trying to establish some kind of meaningful core around its former No. 1 overall pick, it could also be seen as a warning to Williamson that this is the last opportunity for the star forward to prove he can be the anchor of an NBA franchise.

If this season goes unsuccessfully, which it most likely will, it’s hard to imagine a reason why the Pelicans would continue forcing the Williamson experiment. However, one issue with trading Williamson is that the Pelicans’ front office is so inept that the return would likely be laughable.

Up Next

Our next and final preseason NBA preview will feature the Northwest Division. After that we will dish on our exclusive playoff projections!

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