The Eastern Conference’s Southeast Division is perhaps the most bipolar in all of basketball, featuring two teams that could flirt with the 50-win mark and two teams that will struggle to get to 25 wins.
The Orlando Magic and Atlanta Hawks each added intriguing young players that will make the top of the division much more competitive than it was last season, but the Miami Heat, Charlotte Hornets and Washington Wizards are likely going to be stuck with many of the same problems that plagued each of their respective teams last season.
Southeast Division Projected Order Of Finish/Record
Orlando Magic: 48-34
Atlanta Hawks: 46-36
Miami Heat: 33-49
Charlotte Hornets: 27-55
Washington Wizards: 22-60
Orlando Magic
Last season: 41-41
Predicted 2025-26 record: 48-34
Tier: In position for a playoff run
Write up: The Orlando Magic are hoping to end up more like the 2023-24 edition of themselves that won 47 games and earned the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference than the team we saw last season. The addition of Desmond Bane via trade this offseason will certainly help those prospects, but the most crucial fact in what should be a return to form for Orlando will be the fact that Paolo Banchero (hopefully) won’t miss 27 games due to injury this season.
Banchero is entering his fourth season in the NBA, which is typically when a player of his caliber starts making the jump from a future star into a present-day one. Banchero, Bane and Franz Wagner will lead Orlando back to where they were two seasons ago (with one extra win) and I wouldn’t hate their chances to win a first-round series in what will likely be the No. 4 or No. 5 line.
Atlanta Hawks
Last season: 40-42
Predicted 2025-26 record: 46-36
Tier: In position for a playoff run
Write up: The Magic weren’t the only team in the Southeast Division to add reinforcements ahead of the 2025-26 season. In fact, a very good argument could be made that the Atlanta Hawks’ offseason additions will prove even more significant than the ones Orlando made. Atlanta was able to acquire Kristaps Porzingis for relative cents on the dollar in terms of assets due to Boston’s desperation to get under the second apron, and beyond that the team also picked up Nickeil Alexander-Walker from the Minnesota Timberwolves in a sign-and-trade deal.
The Hawks have spent the last four seasons middling between the No. 8 and No. 10 seeds in the postseason play-in tournament, advancing to the playoffs in 2021-22 and 2022-23, while falling short in each of their last two campaigns.
Superstar point guard Trae Young, despite being highly regarded, is still one of the game’s most underrated players in terms of how his production is valued. Young has averaged at least 24 points per game in six of his seven NBA seasons, with his rookie year being the only season which he didn’t hit the mark.
The emergence of Dyson Daniels into becoming the Most Improved Player award winner, the league’s runaway steals leader and a bona fide Defensive Player of the Year candidate will also prove drastic for the Hawks and they’ll be a tough matchup for anyone in the playoffs, presuming they lift themselves out of play-in purgatory.
Miami Heat
Last season: 37-45
Predicted 2025-26 record: 33-49
Tier: Continuing decline
Write up: It took over four decades, but it appears the game has finally surpassed the legendary Pat Riley and the Miami Heat are simply behind the curve because of it. After a 37-win season last year that saw them send Jimmy Butler to Golden State while Tyler Herro emerged as a true No. 1 offensive option, sometimes at Miami’s peril.
The only addition the team made this offseason was Norman Powell, who is coming off a career year but isn’t the kind of game-changing addition Miami was hoping for after attempting to throw its name in the Kevin Durant and the short-lived Giannis Antetokounmpo sweepstakes.
I expect a slight regression from the Heat this season, and I don’t think they’ll get the chance to earn a playoff bid through the play-in tournament as the No. 10 seed in the East like they did last season. I don’t even think Miami would want to, as it would cost the team a lottery pick for the second straight season in that scenario.
Charlotte Hornets
Last season: 19-63
Predicted 2025-26 record: 27-55
Tier: Bad
Write up: The bottom of the Southeast division was as bad as any in the NBA’s recent history. Unfortunately for the competitive balance of the league, I don’t think things will be too much better.
I project Charlotte to make an eight-win improvement, based on the assumption that LaMelo Ball will have a healthier season than in each of his last three campaigns. If he doesn’t, the Hornets could be looking at another sub-20 win season. The Hornets brought in a promising draft class headlined by Dukies Kon Knueppel and Sion James.
Washington Wizards
Last season: 18-64
Predicted 2025-26 record: 22-60
Tier: Bad
Write up: The Wizards actually have a decent young defensive core to build off, but the loss of Jordan Poole removes any offense this team has to speak of. The Wizards lost their first seven games without Poole last season and ended 3-11 overall in the 14 games he wasn’t in the lineup, and the team only crossed the 120-point mark in two of those contests.
I expect Washington to make a jump in the coming years, but the win increase in 2025-26 will be negligible. I see a four-win improvement coming because the conference is naturally weaker this season due to injuries, but I can’t promise in good faith that this team will be any better or even as good as the team that won a league-low 18 games last season.
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