It’s hard to believe that Sunday marks a year since the United States men’s basketball team won its fifth consecutive Olympic gold medal in a thrilling 98-87 triumph over the host nation, France.
Stephen Curry’s now-legendary three-point barrage to secure the victory has already been ingrained as perhaps the signature moment in the last decade of basketball. Not far behind is Curry’s performance in tandem with LeBron James and Kevin Durant against Serbia in the semifinals, where the three defining superstars of their generation scored the final 13 points to lead the USA to a come-from-behind 95-91 victory.
Looking Ahead To 2028
With the 2028 Olympics set to take place on home soil in Los Angeles, focus has shifted to the potential roster that Team USA could unveil for such an important Olympiad. James will almost certainly be at least a year or two into retirement, while Curry and Durant will be 40 and 39 years old. In other words, it will likely be the younger generation of NBA stars that serve as the headliners in SoCal. Still, I suspect at least one, and maybe both, of those aging legends will elect to have their Olympic swan song in 2028.
As of now, there’s a somewhat clear picture of players who are in contention for what will surely be a highly coveted roster spot. Unlike a few Olympiads within the last 15 years, the location in 2028 won’t serve as a roadblock in convincing players to give their time. Steve Kerr mentioned that getting guys on board before the 2024 Olympics was easy because their wives wanted to go to Paris. The motivations will be different this time around, but I’m sure USA Basketball won’t have to worry about selling the superstars on Los Angeles for a few weeks.
I’ve broken down the pool of potential candidates into a list of tiers, ranging from “Lock” to “Potential Candidates”. If the player you’re searching for isn’t on the list, their chances of inclusion on the 2028 roster are unlikely at best. Curry and Durant will occupy a special tier, considering that their inclusion depends solely on whether they are still active players.
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Locks:
- Anthony Edwards (MIN)
- Cade Cunningham (DET)
- Devin Booker (PHX)
- Jalen Brunson (NYK)
Edwards will almost certainly be the marquee star of the 2028 Olympic team, unless Cooper Flagg somehow progresses to a point over the next three years where his off-the-court stardom becomes overpowering. Ant-Man will be just 27 years old when the 2028 Olympics roll around, but he was already one of Team USA’s more vocal leaders as a 22-year-old (and the youngest player on the team) in Paris last summer.
I envision Cunningham being a centerpiece in MVP conversations by the time 2028 rolls around, especially if he continues what he’s building over in Detroit. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Cunningham enters the 2028 Olympics as the reigning award winner.
Still, if the Olympics were tomorrow, Cunningham would have an outstanding chance of being selected after his performance this past season. He impressed with the Team USA Select Team during runs in 2021 and was invited to participate on the main roster at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, though he declined to focus on recovering from a season-ending injury.
Booker is the one surefire veteran leader that doesn’t have injury or age-related question marks that could potentially impact his selection in 2028. Outside of the three-headed monster that was Curry, James and Durant, Booker found his niche on the 2024 team as the fourth most important offensive piece.
Brunson’s stardom as a New York Knick should help his case, but he’s also the perfect kind of cold-blooded, late-game scoring threat that will thrive in international ball.
If health cooperates:
- Jayson Tatum (BOS)
- Tyrese Haliburton (IND)
- Anthony Davis (DAL)
- Joel Embiid (PHI)
Tatum and Haliburton are essentially locks as long as they are somewhat close to the same players they were pre-injury when they return from their respective Achilles ruptures in 2027. Given the recent success of Achilles injury recoveries across various sports, I suspect they’ll be good to go.
Davis will be 35 years old in 2028 and he’s always going to have injury-related concerns given his history, especially as he ages. Still, Davis has competed in two Olympiads and a FIBA World Cup for Team USA throughout his career, so it’s hard to imagine he wouldn’t have a guaranteed spot if he’s up for it.
The most questionable of these players is Embiid, given the recent reports about the health of his knee and the general abundance of injuries that have unfortunately plagued what has still been a Hall of Fame-caliber career. While I think he would certainly have a spot if he’s healthy enough, that’s not something I’d be willing to bet on at this stage.
Likely First-Timers:
- Jalen Williams (OKC)
- Paolo Banchero (ORL)
- Cooper Flagg (DAL)
Jalen Williams might be entering the 2028 Olympics with the deepest jewelry collection on the team, if Oklahoma City can start to stack championship rings as many suspect they will. A third-team All-NBA member in just his third season in the league at age 24, Williams should be a key contributor off the bench for the 2028 team.
Banchero is nearing lock territory for 2028, but he isn’t in Cunningham’s situation as a first-time lock due to the fact that Cunningham has more familiarity with the Team USA program. Still, I suspect that Banchero will be rewarded for his decision to spurn Italy in favor of Team USA last summer and his performance will certainly justify a selection, as I’m sure he’ll be alongside Cunningham and a few others in MVP conversations by 2028.
Flagg isn’t a lock because we haven’t seen him play an official NBA game, but if he performs to the level he’s projected, you can pretty much pencil in his spot on the roster. There’s a legitimate shot that Flagg is the most popular basketball player in America in 2028 if he does live up to the hype, which would make his inclusion on the Olympic roster an essential guarantee.
Potential Candidates:
- Evan Mobley (CLE)
- Bam Adebayo (MIA)
- Donovan Mitchell (CLE)
- Jaylen Brown (BOS)
- Ja Morant (MEM)
- LaMelo Ball (CHA)
- Amen Thompson (HOU)
- Zion Williamson (NO)
- Trey Murphy III (NO)
Out of this bunch, the only player I would currently have on my 12-man Olympic roster is Evan Mobley. If Embiid misses the 2028 Olympics, which I believe is the most likely scenario at this point, Mobley’s thwarting defensive presence will be a welcome addition for a team that will need to establish a rim-protecting identity on that end of the floor in order to succeed against international opponents like Greece and Serbia, who will likely be featuring legendary 7-footers Giannis Antetokounmpo and Nikola Jokic, respectively.
Two players that I believe could make a big enough splash to earn a roster spot by 2028 are Houston’s Amen Thompson and New Orleans’ Trey Murphy III, because of their elite presence not only offensively but defensively as well.
They Have A Spot If They Want It:
- Stephen Curry (GSW)
- Kevin Durant (HOU)
I actually don’t think Curry will be on the roster in 2028, although I believe he’ll still be an active NBA player with the Golden State Warriors at that point. Curry indicated several times that his 2024 run with Team USA could be a one-and-done deal, and I don’t know if Curry will want to spend his age-40 summer on an Olympic swan song when he’s only been a part of one Olympic roster to begin with.
Durant, on the other hand, has been the quintessential Team USA member since he came into the NBA in 2007. KD even went to the 2016 Olympics in Brazil which all the major stars, including Curry, skipped. I believe making a final appearance for Team USA at the 2028 Olympics is something Durant desires and something Team USA will make happen.
Projected 12 for 2028 Olympics: Team USA
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Player Position Team Jalen Brunson PG New York Knicks Tyrese Haliburton PG Indiana Pacers Cade Cunningham PG/SG Detroit Pistons Anthony Edwards SG Minnesota Timberwolve Devin Booker SG Phoenix Suns Jalen Williams SG/SF OKC Thunder Jayson Tatum SF/PF Boston Celtics Cooper Flagg SF/PF Dallas Mavericks Paolo Banchero SF/PF Orlando Magic Kevin Durant SF/PF Houston Rockets Anthony Davis PF/C Dallas Mavericks Evan Mobley C Cleveland Cavaliers
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