LAS VEGAS – Minnesota Lynx star Napheesa Collier entered Thursday’s marquee matchup against A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces as a decisive -1200 favorite to take home the WNBA award for the first time.
While both sides tried to downplay the significance of that one game, as opposed to the larger body of work, the reality is that Thursday’s outcome sparked one of the most decisive line shifts you’ll ever see in an award race.
After Wilson scored 31 points on 80 percent shooting and held her primary assignment Collier to a hard-earned 12 points defensively, both Caesars (-120) and FanDuel (-136) have each publicly listed the Aces’ backbone as the odds-on favorite to win what would be a league record fourth MVP award.
A’JA WILSON TONIGHT 🔥
• 31 POINTS
• 8 REBOUNDS
• 2 BLOCKS
• 2 ASSISTS
• 12/15 FGpic.twitter.com/RuVLPvHvK4— Women’s Hoops Network (@WomensHoops_USA) September 5, 2025
Collier spent much of the season penciled in as the runaway winner, but the winds truly shifted after the events of Aug. 2 at Michelob Ultra Arena. With a 43-point lead late in the third quarter, Collier suffered a severe ankle sprain while crashing to the basket for a rebound attempt. The Lynx would go on to hand the Aces a franchise-worst 53-point loss that afternoon, but the domino effect proved to be one that may cost Collier her MVP award.
After August
While Collier would go on to miss nearly the entire month of August nursing her ankle back to game shape, Wilson and the Aces experienced a renaissance quite unlike anything seen in league history. Immediately following that referendum loss last month, Wilson gathered the team at the facility and essentially told them that if they weren’t embarrassed and willing to give what it takes to win in this league, they should stop showing up to the facility because they’re no longer wanted.
Since that intervention, the Aces haven’t lost. Literally. Thursday’s win marked a franchise record 13th in a row and put them in a position to control their own destiny in terms of earning the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. Given the way the bracket is shaping out, the No. 2 seed’s path to the Finals may be more favorable than the No. 1 seed’s.
🚨 THE WIN STREAK CONTINUES 🚨
The @LVAces get the win over the Lynx and secure their 13th consecutive victory!
This is the longest win streak in Aces' overall franchise history and just the 7th time a team has reached 13 wins in a row in a single szn!#WelcometotheW… pic.twitter.com/vIJMMR0asU
— WNBA (@WNBA) September 5, 2025
The Lynx have also done enough to keep a firm gap between them and the rest of the league, but they’ve also suffered four of their nine losses this season in their last nine games. While Collier wasn’t in the lineup for two of those losses, she has been in the lineup for the Lynx last four games, in which they’ve gone 2-2 after starting the season 28-5.
Not Over Yet
If Friday morning’s massive shift in betting odds proves anything, it’s that this race will be decided after game No. 44. Not a second earlier. If the Lynx think they’ll be able to rest Collier for one of these final three regular-season games, they might as well kiss her MVP chances goodbye. On the contrary, if Wilson slips up and sees her stat line dip once or twice in the Aces’ last three games, those odds could sprint right back in Collier’s favor.
One thing that can’t be argued is that this MVP competition is great for the league. Games like Thursday night, where two of the league’s most pivotal players go head-to-head in a game with legitimate historical stakes, are opportunities that any league in the world would die for.
Here is the Minnesota Lynx’s MVP campaign for Napheesa Collier. pic.twitter.com/RdjA8sadLW
— Khristina Williams (@Khristina) September 5, 2025
Rivalries, both team and individual, define sports. Make no mistake, Phee vs. A’ja and Lynx vs. Aces is now a rivalry, and it will largely shape this chapter in the WNBA history books.
