PHOENIX—The No. 4 Phoenix Mercury will take on the No. 5 New York Liberty in a highly anticipated first-round series.
Mercury Took Regular Season Series Over Liberty, 3-1
Throughout the regular season, the Mercury and Liberty met four times, with Phoenix winning the series 3-1 and securing the playoff tiebreaker after both teams finished 27-17 in the regular season.
In the regular-season meetings, New York ad Phoenix were missing key players due to injuries. For Phoenix, Satou Sabally, Kahleah Copper, and Alyssa Thomas played in three of the four games.
Keys for the Phoenix Mercury to win the series
The last time the Mercury won a playoff game was in Game 2 of the 2021 WNBA Finals with Sandy Brondello as the head coach. Since then, Phoenix has experienced major changes in player movement, coaching staff, and ownership.
With only two players returning from the 2024 season —Kahleah Copper and Natasha Mack— and a revamped roster, the Mercury enjoyed one of their best regular seasons in franchise history with a 27-17 record, and they’re not done yet.
Alyssa Thomas Puts Up
Phoenix finished in the top five in the following categories: rebounds per game (34.7), assists per game (20.9), and defensive rating (100.5). By managing the minutes of starters and bench players, the team built on consistency throughout the season.
“We’re definitely preparing, I think everyone knew that this was going to be a first-round matchup so we’re definitely already preparing for them,” Thomas said after the Mercury’s loss to the Los Angeles Sparks Tuesday. “They’re really big, they’ve been here before. Clearly they’re the reigning champions. For us, it’s about playing our game and we have got to look back at all the video. The three or four games that we played them, the last game they weren’t at full strength. So, it’s just seeing what worked against them, and go out there with a great game plan.”
The trio of Thomas, Copper, and Sabally is what the Mercury envisioned since the offseason, and the team is optimistic about how it could carry over in the playoffs. Additionally, Phoenix has benefited greatly from players coming off the bench, with veterans and WNBA champions DeWanna Bonner and Sami Whitcomb providing valuable experience.
Thomas had a career year in her first season with the Mercury, breaking several records and winning the peak performer award for a career-high 9.2 assists per game.
A strong MVP candidate, Thomas became the first player in WNBA history to record three consecutive triple-doubles and broke Caitlin Clark’s record for most assists in a single season.
Keys for the New York Liberty to win the series
The New York Liberty’s season has been full of ups and downs, from a 9-0 start to finishing in the top five. Despite having 18 lineup changes, the team is now fully healthy just in time for the playoffs.
Throughout the season, the Liberty dealt with untimely injuries and lost games they should have won. Additionally, New York made a midseason splash by acquiring former Finals MVP Emma Meesseman to fill in for Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, who missed this season due to a knee injury.
The Liberty’s trio of Jonquel Jones, Sabrina Ionescu, and Breanna Stewart is entering its third postseason together, and they are definitely tough to beat.
Additionally, New York’s offseason addition of Natasha Cloud and the return of second-year German forward Leonie Fiebich complete the team’s recipe for a potential repeat championship.
“Once you get to the playoffs, you’re going to play good teams no matter what,” Phoenix Mercury head coach Nate Tibbetts said of the New York Liberty Tuesday. “We put ourselves in position to host, which is great, but we know that there’s a lot of work ahead of us, and they’re a talented team. We’ve played them pretty well this year. I think our group is confident in what we can get done and how we want to attack them, but they’re a team that has experience, and they’ve done it together. It’s going to be a great series.”
The Liberty ranked No. 5 in team points per game (84.4), No. 3 in NET rating (5.2), and No. 2 in assists per game (23.3). With a fully health roster, New York could make a difference against Phoenix and advance to the semifinals.
My Mercury vs. Liberty Playoff Series Prediction
I could see the Mercury taking the series against the Liberty in three games, thanks to their team chemistry and development under Nate Tibbetts. I would be surprised if the series ended in two games, as that would give them more time to prepare for the semifinals.
Other than that, I anticipate a competitive first-round series between New York and Phoenix. The X-Factors for both teams will be their bench players and the contributions they’ve made to crucial victories. It will be an entertaining series to watch for basketball fans, with the potential to stay close.
The Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty will begin the best-of-three series in the Valley on Sunday at 5 p.m. EST, with the matchup broadcasted live on ESPN.
