There’s no way Cooper Flagg would pass on being the top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft to play a sophomore season at Duke. Right? Well, not so fast. Popular offshore bookmaker Bovada released odds on March 10 that tabbed a return to Duke as Flagg's most likely destination next season. According to Bovada, Duke (+240) has shorter odds of retaining Flagg than the Hornets, Wizards or Jazz (+550 each) have of landing him in the upcoming NBA Draft. 

What Flagg Returning to Duke Could Mean

While college basketball's top prospect staying for an extra season isn’t entirely unprecedented, the trend has all but disappeared in the aptly titled “one and done” era. However, with the rise of NIL and player empowerment, a potentially generational prospect passing on his immediate ticket to the NBA could symbolize the end of that era entirely. 

NIL has given players a legitimate way of strong-arming their way to a destination before they even reach the league. In fairness, it is a move that comes with great risk historically. It's also one that has come with great reward.

 

Weighing Flagg's Options

As the top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, Flagg is looking at a 4-year deal that exceeds $60 million. While Flagg would make more than his current $4.8 million On3 NIL valuation if he returned to Duke, that number will still fall well short of the $13.8 million that Yahoo! Sports salary cap guru Keith Smart says he could make in his rookie season. 

If Flagg were to return and suffer an injury that affects his NBA future, it would have brutal financial consequences. NIL era or otherwise. It’s harsh, but it’s also the reality involved in making such a consequential career decision. The situations in Washington, Utah and Charlotte could be better, sure. It's still hard to argue that returning to school is worth the risk of any such injury occurring.

One could even argue that Washington or Utah could present positive situations for Flagg. Both franchises have decent young cores to build from and occupy markets that don’t currently have a true NBA star. Flagg would be deemed as the savior in a situation that would have trended positive in the coming years, regardless. Flagg could also avoid entering a true rebuild entirely with some lottery luck, like the Atlanta Hawks had last year. 

Historical Precedent

I mentioned earlier that a return to Duke for Flagg has some historic precedence, and it does. It’s just that most of that precedence occured over 30 years ago. Still, these NBA stars passed on their initial opportunity to be a top pick in the NBA draft for a return to school. Those decisions had varying impacts on NBA history.

Magic Johnson

Magic Johnson’s decision to stay at Michigan State for his sophomore season is among the most consequential decisions ever made in American sports. He recently said on the “All the Smoke” podcast that he would have likely been one of the top picks of the 1978 NBA draft, claiming he met with the owners of the Kansas City Kings and the Detroit Pistons. The Kings eventually lost the first overall pick to the Portland Trail Blazers via coin flip. 

With a well-known junior named Larry Bird also electing to pass on the NBA in favor of an extra season in college, the most important rivalry in basketball’s history was conceived. Magic and Bird would eventually meet in the 1979 National Championship, which is still the most-watched in history. The arrival of their rivalry in the NBA is largely considered to be the singular turning point in league history. It’s safe to say this decision worked out for all involved. 

Ralph Sampson

In terms of using college as leverage against the NBA, Ralph Sampson is surely the most prevalent example. In the late 70s, Sampson rose to prominence as a generational high school prospect before taking his talents to the University of Virginia for the 1979-80 season. Sampson would have been the No. 1 overall pick following his freshman, sophomore and junior seasons at UVA, but he passed on declaring for the draft three times, including his junior season to avoid playing for the team with the No. 1 pick. 

Following his freshman season, the Celtics had the top pick in the draft and Red Auerbach was less than infatuated with the typical crop of upperclassmen. When the Celtics made their intentions of drafting Sampson known, he decided to avoid Boston entirely by staying at Virginia. This resulted in Boston trading down with Golden State for Robert Parish plus the third overall pick, eventually taking Kevin McHale. Sampson elected to stay in school again prior to the 1982 draft, this time in order to avoid being drafted by the San Diego Clippers.

Sampson was eventually drafted first overall by the Houston Rockets in the 1983 NBA Draft after playing all four years at Virginia. He made the NBA All-Star game in each of his first four seasons in the league and led the Rockets to the 1986 NBA Finals, where they lost to none other than the Boston Celtics. 

Larry Johnson

“Grandmama” could very well have been a lottery pick after his two years of JuCo at Odessa College (TX), but he elected to play for coach Jerry Tarkanian and the Runnin’ Rebels at UNLV instead. Johnson burst onto the scene during his first season at UNLV, leading the Runnin’ Rebels on a historic NCAA tournament run that saw them win their only title in school history. To this date, UNLV is the last mid-major to win the NCAA tournament. 

Johnson was again slated to be an early pick after his first run at UNLV, but his relationship with coach Tarkanian and the possibility of a historic repeat enticed him to stay for a second go-around. The Runnin’ Rebels were even better in 1990-91, even if the outcome wasn’t. Johnson led what many consider to be the greatest college basketball team of all time on a 34-0 run that ended in a 79-77 loss to Duke in the Final Four.

LJ was drafted first overall by the Charlotte Hornets in 1992, winning the Rookie of the Year award and making two All-Star game appearances before retiring as a New York Knick following the 2000-2001 season.