The 2025-26 NBA season is shaping up to be one of transition, where opportunity meets expectation for a new wave of rising talent. Every year, a handful of players seize expanded minutes, greater usage, or an altered roster landscape to vault themselves into larger roles.
For teams in the middle of rebuilds or adjusting after major offseason moves, breakout performances can be the difference between contention and another year in the lottery.
This upcoming season’s list of breakout candidates spans the spectrum: lottery picks entering year two with full developmental runways, young wings stepping into vacated scoring roles, and guards suddenly thrust into lead playmaking duties. Some are poised to make statistical leaps after showing flashes as rookies, while others are banking on offseason progress to unlock untapped potential.
From high draft picks like Alex Sarr and Matas Buzelis to emerging guards such as Andrew Nembhard and Amen Thompson, these are the top 10 NBA breakout candidates (listed alphabetically) to watch as the 2025-26 campaign tips off.
Matas Buzelis, Chicago Bulls (Age: 20)
The Bulls have fully pivoted to a youth movement, and Buzelis sits at the center of it. After starting midway through his rookie year and finishing strong with 13.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.9 assists per game, he’s set for a major sophomore leap.
Chicago cleared the way by trading Alex Caruso, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine, creating more touches and minutes. At 6’10” with shooting and creation upside, Buzelis, who turns 21 on October 13, projects as both a playmaking forward and one of the Bulls’ long-term core pieces.
Donovan Clingan, Portland Trail Blazers (Age: 21)
Clingan enters the year as Portland’s starting center after Deandre Ayton’s departure. He started 37 games last season, averaging 7.9 rebounds and 1.6 blocks while ranking among NBA leaders in rim protection metrics.
Now, the Blazers are handing him the keys as their defensive anchor. With Jrue Holiday and Shaedon Sharpe as lead scorers, Clingan will have every chance to average a double-double and contend for All-Defense consideration.
Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons (Age: 23)
Before his broken fibula ended his 2024-25 season, Ivey was averaging 17.6 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. Healthy again, he’s back alongside Cade Cunningham in Detroit’s backcourt with the chance to take another leap.
Ivey’s burst, transition scoring, and developing playmaking make him one of the most dynamic young guards in the East. If his shooting efficiency improves, he could become a Most Improved Player contender.
Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers (Age: 23)
Mathurin’s breakout case is driven by opportunity and necessity. With Haliburton sidelined, the Pacers need Mathurin’s scoring more than ever.
He averaged 16.1 points and a career-high 5.3 rebounds last year but now must add playmaking and defense to his arsenal. In a contract year, Mathurin could boost both his production and his long-term value by seizing the role as Indiana’s secondary scorer behind Nembhard.
Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets (Age: 22)
Miller missed more than half of last season with a wrist injury, but in his 27 appearances he averaged 21.0 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 3.6 assists—clear evidence of his ability to scale up as Charlotte’s primary scorer. He attempted a career-high 10.9 threes per game and posted multiple 30-point outings before his year was cut short.
Now fully healthy, Miller is expected to return as the Hornets’ perimeter focal point next to LaMelo Ball. If he sustains efficiency and adds defensive consistency, Miller could emerge as one of the NBA’s best young wings.
Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers (Age: 25)
Tyrese Haliburton’s season-ending Achilles injury puts Nembhard in the spotlight as Indiana’s full-time starting point guard. He averaged 10.0 points, 5.0 assists, and 3.3 rebounds in 65 games last season, showing flashes of a well-rounded two-way game.
The 25-year-old has already shown two-way ability, particularly in last year’s postseason. Now, he’ll take on primary playmaking duties while still guarding top scorers each night. With Myles Turner also gone, Nembhard’s production will be critical for the Pacers’ playoff hopes—making him one of the clearest breakout picks of the season.
Alex Sarr, Washington Wizards (Age: 20)
Sarr, the No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft, flashed rim protection and floor-spacing as a rookie. He averaged 13.0 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 67 games while earning NBA All-Rookie honors. He closed the season strong, topping 15 points per game over the final month.
As it stands, Sarr will anchor Washington’s frontcourt as the starting center. His combination of defensive versatility and developing stretch-five skills make him the centerpiece of the Wizards’ rebuild and one of the most likely players to make a statistical jump.
Shaedon Sharpe, Portland Trail Blazers (Age: 22)
Sharpe is being positioned as Portland’s offensive engine after averaging 18.5 points per game last year. With Anfernee Simons and Ayton gone, the Blazers are giving Sharpe full control of the perimeter scoring load.
If he improves his 3-point efficiency and defensive effort, Sharpe has the talent to reach All-Star consideration this season while pushing past the 20-point-per-game mark.
Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets (Age: 22)
Fred VanVleet’s season-ending ACL injury thrust Amen Thompson into the Rockets’ starting point guard role. Already an elite athlete and defender, Thompson now inherits the chance to run Houston’s offense.
After averaging 14.1 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 3.3 assists last season, Thompson could see his workload skyrocket. A near triple-double stat line isn’t out of the question, making him one of the biggest breakout threats of the year.
Jaylen Wells, Memphis Grizzlies (Age: 22)
The Grizzlies’ blockbuster trade of Desmond Bane to Orlando opened a massive scoring void, and Wells is the top candidate to fill it.
Wells made the All-Rookie First Team last season after averaging 10.4 points on 42.5/35.2/82.2 shooting splits. With Bane gone and Memphis leaning on Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. as the foundation, Wells has the green light to expand his scoring arsenal and emerge as the long-term answer at wing.
