2025 WNBA Finals Preview: Can the Phoenix Mercury Win Their First Title In the Thomas-Sabally Era?

PHOENIX— For the first time since 2021, the Phoenix Mercury are headed back to the WNBA Finals, where they will face A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces.

Phoenix Mercury, WNBA, 2025 WNBA Finals
Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images

The Mercury’s big three—Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally, and Alyssa Thomas—along with their rookies and bench heroics, have been overlooked throughout the season.  Now, appearing in the Finals for the first time in four seasons, they are the favorites among several sportsbooks. 

In fact, the Aces defeated the Mercury 3-1 in the regular-season series, with three of the four matchups decided by just one or two possessions. 

Series Odds

Phoenix Mercury: -122
Las Vegas Aces: +104

Game 1 Odds

Phoenix Mercury: +2.5 (-104 ML)
Las Vegas Aces: -2.5 (-118 ML)

Schedule 

DayDateAwayHomeGameETTV
FridayOctober 3, 2025Phoenix MercuryLas Vegas Aces18:00 PMESPN
SundayOctober 5, 2025Phoenix MercuryLas Vegas Aces23:00 PMABC
WednesdayOctober 8, 2025Las Vegas AcesPhoenix Mercury38:00 PMESPN
FridayOctober 10, 2025Las Vegas AcesPhoenix Mercury48:00 PMESPN
SundayOctober 12, 2025Phoenix MercuryLas Vegas Aces5 *3:00 PMABC
WednesdayOctober 15, 2025Las Vegas AcesPhoenix Mercury6*8:00 PMESPN
FridayOctober 17, 2025Phoenix MercuryLas Vegas Aces7*8:00 PMESPN

*If neccesary

Mercury vs. Everybody: Phoenix’s Finals Mantra 

Since the start of the season, the Mercury have been consistent in their next-woman-up mentality and team unity.

In Phoenix’s first season without franchise cornerstones Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi, they have had of their best regular seasons since 2014, the last time they won a championship.

To reach the WNBA Finals, the Mercury faced tough matchups against the New York Liberty in the first round and the Minnesota Lynx in the semifinals. Phoenix successfully eliminated two teams that headlined  last year’s Finals and is set to face Las Vegas, which has appeared in the Finals three of the last four years.

“We just continue to block out the noise, keep us the main priority, keep the main thing, the main thing, and just continue building off of what we’ve already done,” Copper told reporters at shootaround Wednesday.

After the Mercury won the semifinal series over the Lynx on Sunday, Copper said in an interview, “Don’t pick us,” a mindset that continues to fuel Phoenix’s underdog mentality.

After spending the majority of his coaching career as an NBA assistant, Nate Tibbetts wrapped up his second season as head coach of the Mercury. 

“Our approach as underdogs has been very consistent,” Tibbetts said. “It’s going to be the same way in this round as it was in the first and second rounds. This is a group that believes in each other. They care about one another, and that’s the most important thing. We can’t control the narrative. We can play hard and keep competing.”

Mercury’s Chemistry Peaks Ahead of WNBA Finals

Back in May, two of Mercury’s returning players from 2024—Copper and center Natasha Mack—missed the first month of the season due to injuries..  From the start of the season to now, the team’s identity has been playing tough defense and converting turnovers into points.

By the start of August, Phoenix had fully recovered, gone on a six-game winning streak, and clinched the playoff tiebreaker over New York to finish in the top four of the standings.

“Obviously you want to have great players, so, you got to have great performances there,” Tibbetts said. “The preparation is important. We need to keep leaning into our defense. Defense has been a big key for us. We haven’t shot it as well as we did during the regular season. So it’d be great to see the ball around a little bit more for free. As the series goes on and the teams start to feel each other out, you kind of get a better understanding of what teams are trying to do.

It took Copper, Sabally, and Thomas some time to get the Mercury rolling during the regular season, and their efforts are paying off in the playoffs.

As Phoenix faces Las Vegas, which has a trio of Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young, they will need their top players to score, along with more heroic plays from the bench, to win the championship.

“We’ve done an incredible job as far as getting our chemistry together (and) figuring out our spots,” Copper said. “I don’t think anybody thought we could do it so quickly, especially with me jumping in there halfway through the season and us being in and out with injuries. But it’s a testament to who we are as players and the sacrifices we’re willing to make for each other. And then it’s that off the court chemistry that keeps us super comfortable and confident with each other, and then it just translates on the court.”

Mercury’s X-Factors: DeWanna Bonner, Kathryn Westbeld, Sami Whitcomb

Throughout the playoffs, the Mercury’s bench has had a positive impact, especially during the semifinals series against the top-seeded Lynx.

In Game 4, forward DeWanna Bonner and guard Sami Whitcomb hit crucial 3-pointers to give Phoenix a series win over Minnesota.

“Our bench has been really good,” Tibbetts said. “Sami (Whitcomb) and DB (DeWanna Bonner), just the experience they’ve had have been very impactful in their minutes. And then (Kathryn Westbeld) has played a big role all season, although it hasn’t been big-time minutes. When she does get time, she always seems to hit a big shot or hit a big defensive stop.”

A key matchups to watch is the frontcourt of NaLyssa Smith and Wilson for Las Vegas, and Sabally and Thomas for Phoenix. Both teams finished in the top ten in team rebounds per game and offensive rating during the regular season.

The matchups between the guards—Young and Gray for the Aces, and Copper and Monique Akoa Makani for the Mercury—will be another one to watch. Both Gray and Copper have similar ability to score in crunch time.

“We’re playing really good basketball,” Copper said. “It’s always another level that we can hit, especially how we’ve been defensively. We know offensively, what we can do, but defensively, what we’ve been able to do down the stretch in big moments of the game has been most impressive for me.”

Third Finals Trip Could Bring Alyssa Thomas Her First WNBA Championship

Thomas will appear in her third WNBA Finals and her first with the Mercury, as she aims to add a WNBA Championship to her resume. A true superstar, Thomas has been overlooked her whole career, and is considered a two-way triple-double machine.

The last time Thomas faced Wilson and the Aces was in the 2022 WNBA Finals, when she played for the Connecticut Sun, who lost the series in four games.

“It wasn’t about taking a chance,” Thomas said after the Mercury’s series-clinching win over the Lynx Sunday. “I believed in this franchise and believed in the team that they were putting together. It was just a fresh start playing with people that want the same that I do, (for) a franchise that’s known for winning championships, and that’s been my goal.”

During the postseason with the Mercury, Thomas is averaging 18.6 points, 8.4 rebounds, 9.1 assists, and 2.0 steals per game in seven games. 

The Phoenix Mercury will face the Las Vegas Aces on the road this Friday, October 3, for Game 1 of the 2025 WNBA Finals at 5 p.m. PST.

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