The Minnesota Lynx and Phoenix Mercury bring contrasting identities and MVP finalists into a best-of-five semifinal series that begins Sunday at Target Center. For Minnesota, the mission is to validate a dominant regular season with a run to the Finals. For Phoenix, the opportunity lies in extending a postseason surge sparked by Alyssa Thomas’s brilliance and a rejuvenated frontcourt.
Game 1 tips off at 5 p.m. ET on ABC.
Lynx Surge Into Semifinals
Minnesota posted the league’s best record at 34-10 and carried that momentum into the postseason. The Lynx swept the Golden State Valkyries in two games, though neither win came easily. In both contests, Minnesota trailed by double digits before storming back in the fourth quarter.
In Game 2, the Lynx faced a 14-point deficit heading into the final period but locked in defensively, outscoring Golden State 26-11 to clinch the sweep with a 75-74 victory.
“I am just so proud of our effort,” Napheesa Collier said after the win. “I think it shows the grit and the resilience that this team has and what we’ve been talking about for two years. I was really proud of us today.”
Collier, an MVP finalist, scored 44 points on 17-of-27 shooting across the series while adding 13 rebounds. Her ability to take over games late has defined Minnesota’s identity all season.
Head coach Cheryl Reeve praised her team’s perseverance in pressure moments.
“I asked them not to quit. I told them to get after it, and they believed,” Reeve said.
Kayla McBride and Courtney Williams were pivotal in the backcourt. McBride scored 18 points in Game 2, hitting a crucial scoop layup with under three minutes to play, while Williams delivered a contested jumper to extend the lead in the closing minute. Alanna Smith, recently named Co-Defensive Player of the Year, provided rim protection and rebounding, ensuring Minnesota’s defensive core held firm.
Mercury Eliminate Defending Champs
Phoenix’s path was far less straightforward. The Mercury opened their series against New York with a disappointing home loss, only to respond with a 26-point rout in Game 2 and a clutch 79-73 victory in Game 3. It was the franchise’s first advancement past the opening round since 2021.
The deciding game belonged to Thomas. She finished with 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 11 assists, recording the first 20-point triple-double in WNBA postseason history.
“This is just what she does,” Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts said. “She impacts the game in so many different ways. She cares about one thing and that’s winning.”
Every triple-double in WNBA Playoffs history
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) September 20, 2025
Alyssa Thomas: 20/11/11
Alyssa Thomas: 17/15/11
Alyssa Thomas: 16/15/11
Alyssa Thomas: 12/13/10
Alyssa Thomas: 11/11/10
Courtney Vandersloot: 12/18/10
Sheryl Swoopes: 14/10/10 pic.twitter.com/QpqQKApwQv
Satou Sabally added her own breakout performance with 23 points and 12 rebounds in her first career playoff double-double, while Kahleah Copper scored 12 points and grabbed nine boards. Together, the trio accounted for or assisted on 74 of Phoenix’s 79 points, underscoring their importance as the heartbeat of the team.
Breanna Stewart, who poured in 30 points for the Liberty in the loss, said Thomas’s all-around impact sets her apart.
“AT is incredible,” Stewart said. “I’m excited to see what she continues to do with the rest of the playoffs because we had a nightmare guarding her. I’m sure everybody else will, too.”
Regular-Season Lessons
The Lynx won the regular-season series 3-1, but those matchups came before Phoenix had both Thomas and Sabally healthy at the same time. The Mercury believe they present a different challenge now, and their players have embraced the opportunity.
“They haven’t seen us full strength,” Thomas said.
Sabally added: “We’re excited. Round 2, let’s get it.”
Minnesota’s statistical dominance across the regular season was clear. The Lynx led the WNBA in offensive rating (109.5), field-goal percentage (47.2), and three-point percentage (37.8). They also ranked second in defensive rating (97.5) and points allowed per game (76.7). Their ability to control tempo, limit mistakes, and punish opponents with efficiency separated them from the rest of the league.
Phoenix finished 27-17 and relied on physicality, rebounding, and turnover pressure to create opportunities. The Mercury averaged 34.7 rebounds per game, ranking fifth, and led the league in points off turnovers (18.6 per game). While they ranked just ninth in field-goal percentage (43.3) and sixth in three-point shooting (34.0), their ability to generate extra possessions through effort and defense has kept them in games.
Matchups That Will Decide the Series
The battle between Collier and Thomas may be the most compelling of the postseason. Both are MVP finalists and versatile forwards who impact the game on both ends. Collier’s efficient scoring and rim protection clash with Thomas’s playmaking and physicality.
Smith’s defense will be vital in slowing down Sabally, who has shown she can stretch the floor while punishing mismatches inside. On the perimeter, McBride’s three-point shooting meets Copper’s downhill attacking game, setting up a classic clash of styles between sharpshooting and slashing.
The turnover battle looms as decisive. The Lynx were 23-4 when winning it this season, while the Mercury went 17-8 when they held the edge. Both teams thrive in transition once they create disruption.
Stakes and Expectations
Minnesota enters as a heavy favorite, listed at -700 to win the series, with ESPN’s BPI model giving them an 89.3 percent chance to advance to the Finals. Phoenix sits at +500, with just a 10.7 percent projection.
Still, the Mercury bring experience and momentum. With Thomas orchestrating, Sabally finding rhythm, and Copper attacking relentlessly, Phoenix has the tools to challenge the Lynx if they can control the boards and hit timely threes.
For Minnesota, the focus is on translating regular-season excellence into postseason results. Collier said the team intends to set the tone from the start of the series.
“We get to have those days off, recover, take care of our bodies and also just set the tone for how we want to play in these playoffs,” she said.
Game 2 will also be played at Target Center on Tuesday before the series shifts to Phoenix for Game 3 on Friday. If necessary, Games 4 and 5 will alternate between Phoenix and Minnesota.
