The Las Vegas Aces will matchup against the Phoenix Mercury on the road tonight. With a half a game lead over the Liberty, the Aces look to retain the No. 1 seed in the WNBA. Here, you will find the WNBA betting odds, stats, and predictions for Thursday, September 8.
The Las Vegas Aces (32-6, 14-5 Away) will face the Phoenix Mercury (9-29, 8-11 Home) tonight. With two regular season games remaining, these two teams will matchup the next two games. With the Mercury eliminated from playoff contention, they will be without Diana Taurasi and Shey Peddy. For a team that scores the lowest points in the league, those two players make up 28 percent of the total offense.
With the playoffs near, the Aces remain half a game ahead of the New York Liberty for the top seed in the WNBA. Ahead of their two games mini-series against Phoenix, perhaps Becky Hammon will have the opportunity to rest some starters and add some bench minutes. Overall, the Aces are 3-2 in their last five games, and four of their six losses all came since August 19. With the season nearly over, the Mercury dropped nine straight games, and face one of the most elite teams the next few matchups.
In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 10PM EST, at the Footprint Center, located in Phoenix, Arizona. If you're Betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on the ION Network. For the best betting odds, stats and analysis, here is information to know.
WNBA Daily Odds: Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury
Las Vegas Aces -18.5 (-110)
The Las Vegas Aces were the most elite team through the first half of the season. Still one of the best in the WNBA, four of their six losses came in the backend of August. Fresh off a 103-77 win against the Storm, the Aces are hungry to retain the No. 1 seed in the league. Although they covered just once in seven matchups, the Mercury will be without star Diana Taurasi. In the first matchup against the Aces on June 21, Phoenix were without stars Brittney Griner and Taurasi.
The Aces will face a depleted Phoenix team who rank last in points per game, pace, and offensive/defensive rating. Although the Aces haven't played their best basketball as of late, Becky Hammons team defeated the Phoenix Mercury in both meetings this season and covered the spread in each of them. Over those two matchups, Vegas covered two large spreads (-17, -19), and have a +46-point differential in their two meetings.
Why the Aces can cover the spread
Normally, I wouldn't take Aces to cover this large of a spread. However, they recently covered the -20 spread against a Storm team who also ranks low in the standings. Overall, Vegas is 20-18-0 against the spread, and faces a Mercury team who is 14-24-0 overall ATS this season. In dual games against Phoenix, A'ja Wilson and the Aces average 98.5 points per game, compared to the Mercury's 75.5 points. Even if Taurasi was healthy, this team allows the opposition to score 84.3 points per game, and nearly a league high 37.2 three-point percentage. Additionally, the Mercury rank last in the league in rebounds per game (30.7).
Overall, the Aces are 0-4 against the spread in their last four road games. However, with this caliber of matchup, it would be hard to face Aces here. Ultimately these two teams are the best and worst teams in terms of net rating. In their victory over the storm, A'ja Wilson led the way with 30 points, and Vegas had five players with points in double figures. Although its unknown how many minutes the starters will play, the Aces are the more dominant team, and it's not even close. With the Aces money line at -4500, you would not get a ton of return with the odds.
The Mercury continue their miserable season, despite Taurasi hitting 10,000 career points. Riddled by injuries, and players out of the lineup, Phoenix is on a nine-game losing streak, and only covered the spread once in five games. Their home record against the spread this season is 8-10.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury O 165.5 Points (-110)
Today, I picked my two favorite straight bets. With the playoffs looming, I steered away from prop bets in this game, due to possible load management. Although both teams haven't matched up since July 11, the over hit in two straight games, with the series averaging 174 points. Although the Aces had Candace Parker for the first meeting, the Mercury were without stars Taurasi and Griner for game two. Even without their heavy hitters, the Mercury managed to score 72 points, and allow nearly 100 points in both events.
Although Phoenix will be missing key players, the over will hit due to one reason, poor defense. The Mercury ranks last defensively, and the Aces are 22-16-0 versus the total this season. Last matchup, Jackie Young, A'ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Kelsey Plum all had points in double figures. With the No. 1 Seed on the line, I don't see the Aces taking their foot of the gas this game. With the Aces slight regression since August, they still remain a top three team both on offense and defense.
Season Statistics & Betting Trends
Las Vegas Aces
- LV Aces: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- 6-4 in their last 10 games.
- ATS Record: 20-18-0
- O/U Record: 22-16-0
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
- 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- O/U is 3-2 in the last 5 games.
- O/U: 4-6 in the last 10 games.
- 1st in Offensive Rating (112.5)
- 1st in Defensive Rating (97.8)
- 1st in Points Per Game (92.6)
- 1st in Pace: 98.76
- Opponent Points Per Game: 80.3 (4th)
- Three-Point Percentage: 37.4 (2nd)
- Rebounds Per Game: 34.8 (5th)
- LV ATS won last 10 games: Atlanta (-16.5), New York (-7.5), Seattle (-20)
32 wins 🎰#ALLINLV pic.twitter.com/9BpjT8qmxG
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) September 3, 2023
Phoenix Mercury
- Phx Mercury: 0-5 in their last 5 games.
- 1-9 in their last 10 games.
- ATS Record: 14-24-0
- O/U Record: 17-20-1
- 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
- 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
- O/U is 4-1 in the last 5 games.
- O/U: 5-5 in the last 10 games.
- 11th in Offensive Rating (96.4)
- 12th in Defensive Rating (107.1)
- 12th in Points Per Game (76.5)
- 12th in Pace: 93.95
- Opponent Points Per Game: 84.3 (9th)
- Three-Point Percentage: 32.6 % (10th)
- Rebounds Per Game: 30.7 (12th)
- PHX ATS won last 10 games: Connecticut (+7.5, +14.5), Dallas (+7.5)
Final. pic.twitter.com/WUnjUKlJYW
— Phoenix Mercury (@PhoenixMercury) September 6, 2023
Head-to-head stats: Aces vs. Mercury
Season Matchups:
Game 1: Las Vegas 99, Phoenix 79 (LV -19, Over 164.5)
Game 2: Las Vegas 98, Phoenix 72 (LV-17, Over 169.5)
- Las Vegas leads the season series 2-0
- The Aces are 2-0 ATS vs. the Mercury
- Game Points (AVG) last two matchups: 174
- Las Vegas average points last 10 games: 85
- Phoenix Angeles average points last 10 games: 73
- Las Vegas average opponent points last 10 games: 80.2
- Phoenix average opponent points last 10 games: 86.5
- Las Vegas average opponent points last 5 games: 82.2
- Phoenix average opponent points last 5 games: 88.2
Injuries
Las Vegas Aces
- None
Phoenix Mercury
- Diana Taurasi, guard: OUT (toe)
- Shey Peddy, guard: OUT (concussion)
- Christyn Williams, guard: (Day-To-Day)
- Sylar Diggins-Smith
Stay tuned for more WNBA and betting related articles. Click here for more WNBA betting strategies.
Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at BallisLife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.
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