2023 WNBA Commissioner's Cup Betting Odds: Liberty vs. Aces

The 2023 WNBA Commissioner's Cup title tonight will take place tonight, between the top teams in the league, the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces. For WNBA betting, below is the information provided to make an informed decision.

Tonight, the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces will battle for the 2023 WNBA Commissioner's Cup title. It's the third annual Cup, in which the Aces were crowned winner last season. In this article, we will discuss the game odds, stats, information, and our best predictions for tonight's game. The best team in the east, the New York Liberty (24-6, 12-2 away) will take on the Las Vegas Aces (27-3,15-0 home) for the championship at 9 PM EST. The game is located at Michelob ULTRA Arena, located in Las Vegas, Nevada. Additionally, the event will air on Amazon Prime Video. If you are looking for the best WNBA betting odds, stats and analysis, here is some information to know.

2023 WNBA Commissioner's Cup Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

2023 WNBA Commissioner's Cup MVP Betting Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

New York Liberty

  • New York Liberty: 5-0 in their last 5 games.
  • 9-1 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 14-16-0
  • O/U Record: 17-13-0
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-3 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U 1-4 in the last 10 games.
  • 2nd in Offensive Rating (108.5)
  • 3rd in Defensive Rating (99.4)
  • 2nd in Points Per Game (88.5)
  • 7th in Pace: 96.85
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.7 (3rd)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 38 % (2nd)
  • Net Rating: 9.2 (2nd)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 38.2 (2nd)
  • New York ATS won last 10 games:  Indiana (-13), Atlanta (-9), Minnesota (-9), Las Vegas (+4.5), Chicago (-12.5), Indiana (-1).

Las Vegas Aces

  • Las Vegas Aces: 4-1 in their last 5 games.
  • 9-1 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 18-12-0
  • O/U Record: 18-12-0
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-3 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U 6-4 in the last 10 games.
  • 1st in Offensive Rating (114.3)
  • 1st in Defensive Rating (96.7)
  • 1st in Points Per Game (94)
  • 2nd in Pace: 98.72
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 79.6 (2nd)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 38.9 % (1st)
  • Net Rating: 17.6 (1st)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 34.9 (4th)
  • Las Vegas ATS won last 10 games:  LA (-12.5), Minnesota (-14), Dallas (-11), Atlanta (-13.5), Dallas (-13.5), Washington (-17.5), Atlanta (-16.5).

Head-to-head stats: Liberty vs. Aces

Season Matchups:
Game 1: Las Vegas 98, New York 81 (Las Vegas -6.5, Over 176)
Game 2: New York 99, Las Vegas 61(New York +4.5, Under 176.5)

  • The season spread is split 1-1
  • Game Points (AVG) last 10 matchups: 167
  • Liberty average points vs. Aces last 10 games: 79
  • Aces average points vs Liberty last 10 games: 88
  • New York average points last 10 games: 88
  • Las Vegas average points last 10 games: 94


New York Liberty

  • Han Xu, Center: Probable

Las Vegas Aces

  • None

New York +7.5 (-112)

The New York Liberty are in their first ever WNBA Commissioner's Cup, and will fight for the title, which includes a cash prize, and charitable donations. New York is coming off six straight wins, in which they covered the spread in four straight games. As the season progressed, New York has formed exceptional chemistry around their starting five. In addition, the Liberty have greater depth, which includes the return of Stefanie Dolson, and the probability of Han Xu.

The New York Liberty have the best record of 5-0 in the month of August, and lead in rebounding, blocks, and field goal percentage. This month, the Liberty lead the league in assist percentage, and are tied for third in second chance points. Overall, the Liberty covered the spread six out of their last ten games and average a spread of 16.5 points in the last five. The Las Vegas Aces are currently favored to cover the -7.5-spread tonight, in the WNBA Commissioner's Cup.

Matchups this season

In the first matchup, Las Vegas defeated New York, 98-81, and covered the spread. Although the Liberty shot 40 percent from the three-point, New York didn't receive enough production from all of its starters, and the Aces had forward, Candace Parker. Since then, Parkers is out indefinitely with a fractured foot. The second matchup was a much different story. With a crowd attendance of over 11,000 fans, the New York Liberty dominated the Aces, 99-61. Without Parker, the Liberty commanded the boards 48 to 24, and received admirable gameplay from their starting five. Comprehensively, the Liberty held A'Ja Wilson to 9 points, and the Aces to 26 percent three-point shooting. Additionally, The Liberty outscored the Aces 20 to zero in second chance points. Las Vegas currently leads most of the WNBA in several statistical categories, which will make them a viable threat tonight in the Commissioner's Cup.

Why New York will cover

New York Liberty star, Breanna Stewart, was named Eastern Conference Player of the Week for the fifth time this season. Stewart, along with A'ja Wilson, will continue to fight for the MVP Race. Although the Commissioners Cup is not the WNBA Finals, these top two seeded teams will have a chance to add to their rivalry. With Charity money on the line, I can't see New York getting blown out. With the exceptional play of Jonquel Jones, especially on the boards, along with Sabrina Ionescu and their supporting staff, I expect New York to stay close in this one. If New York can command control of the boards, tempo, and second chance points, they have all the reasons to cover. Overall, the Liberty are 18-12-0 against the spread this season. I stayed away from the MoneyLine, since Las Vegas is undefeated at home this season.

Over 177.5 Points

The Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty have the top two offenses in the league. Becky Hammons squad, the Aces rank first in total points per game (94), while Sandy Brondello's team, the Liberty rank second (88.5). They are the top squads in net rating, offensive rating, three-point percentage, and opponent points per game. The Aces rank, who rank second in pace, are the reigning WNBA Commissioner's Cup Champions.

If you are leaning on betting the over, the Liberty are 18-12-0, and the Aces at 17-13-0. Although the Liberty are 1-4 in their last five games, they recently hit the over in a 100-89 win, over the Indiana Fever. As for the Aces, they hit the over in six out of their last ten. Both teams final score totaled over 176 points the first game, in which Vegas conquered the Liberty, 99-81. That game, the over hit at 179. In their second matchup, the total reached just 166 points, in which New York played incredible defensive. Vegas plays fast tempo basketball, and tonight should be either a shootout, or a defensive showdown. I'll take my chances with this one.

Why the Over can hit

Although the Aces are 7-8 on over/under totals at home, they have the best offense in the league. Not only do they have a multitude of talent, but they also lead the WNBA in Net Rating, by a large margin. Hammons team, comprised of high caliber players, including A'ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young, and Chelsea Gray,are a high-powered offense with little flaws. Much like the Aces, Breanna Stewart is playing the best basketball of her career, along with Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, Betnijah Laney, and Courtney Vandersloot. With their high second chance points, three-point shots, impressive ball movement, and pick and rolls, I don't see this Commissioner's Cup game totaling under 177.5 points.

Although both teams are top three in defense, all eyes with be on All-Star Captains, Breanna Stewart, and A'ja Wilson. Stewart, 28, is fresh off a 42-point performance, in which she had 3 steals and blocks, against Indiana. Wilson, 27, is coming off a career performance of 41 points and 12 rebounds, against the Mystics. There's one thing that's certain, the Aces don't plan to get blown out again, and Wilson won't shoot 2-14, especially after being evaluated for a concussion.

It's apparent, the Aces have distinguished themselves from the rest in many statistical categories. Although the Liberty trail behind in most, if you're betting, I like the over here.

Jonquel Jones O 10.5 Rebounds (-102)

(Brandon Todd/New York Liberty)

Liberty forward, Jonquel Jones has put the league on notice with her exceptional play. Jones, 29, is coming off a 15-point, 12 rebound outing against the Indiana Fever. Overall, Jones is averaging 8.4 rebounds per game, and compiled double-digit rebounds in 3 out of the last 5 games, and 9 of the last 13. In two games against Vegas, the Liberty forward is averaging 10 rebounds per game, and is top 15th in the league in second chance points per game.

Although the Liberty have frontcourt depth, with the addition of Stefanie Dolson back from injury, Jones should continue to dominate the boards. Jones ranks 3rd in offensive rebounds (3), and 8th in overall rebounds. Without Candace Parker, that's once less body the Liberty will have to worry about when it comes to the boards. With A'ja Wilson due for a comeback game, the matchup will be fun down in the paint between the two.

A'ja Wilson O 19.5 Points (-120)

(Brandon Todd/New York Liberty)

The Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty are the two best teams, who will compete for the Commissioner's Cup Trophy. In addition, A'ja Wilson was named the Western Conference Player of the Week, in which she averaged 29.7 points, 11.7 rebounds, 2.3 steals, 1 block, and shot 54.4 percent from the field.

Wilson is one of the most electric offensive and defensive players in the league. The former 2022 defensive player of the league was held to 9 points on 2-14 shooting in the last matchup against New York. Since then, Wilson has gone on a tear, averaging 29 points in the past three games, and hitting over 19.5 points in three straight appearances.

Besides the matchup on August 6th, in which Wilson was evaluated for a concussion, the Aces star hit over 19.5 points in 6 straight games in July, and in 15 out of the last 20. Furthermore, Wilson has a premier matchup at home, tonight, and will be out for revenge against her team's rival, the New York Liberty.

Sabrina Ionescu O 5.5 Assists (-125)

(Brandon Todd/New York Liberty)

Sabrina Ionescu is one of the best three-point shooters in the game, however, she's 7th in the league in assists (5.9). Although Ionescu ranks in the top ten in turnovers, she is notoriously known for her no look passes, especially on back door cuts. With the Liberty leading the league in assists, their ball movement has looked pristine at times.

In two games against Las Vegas, the Liberty guard is averaging 7 assists. In addition, Ionescu, 25, hit over 5.5 assists 3 of the last 5, and 11 out of the last 15 games. Even though Ionescu is known for her ability to score, she is unselfish with the basketball, and should be able to dish over 5.5 assists in the Commissioner's Cup tonight.

Stay tuned for more WNBA and betting related articles. Click here for more WNBA betting strategies.

Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at BallisLife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut with her Cat and Dog. She is a Boston Celtics, Boston Bruins, New York Yankees, and New York Giants fan. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics.


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