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Liberty vs. Aces Odds & Predictions: WNBA Finals Game 4

Sara Jane Gamelli 4741 October 18, 2023 No Comments

Tonight, The New York Liberty will matchup against the Las Vegas Aces at home for game 4 of the WNBA Finals. Up 2-1 in the series, the Las Vegas Aces have the opportunity to capture their second consecutive championship. The Liberty got their first finals win since 1999, and will look to even the series. Here you will find the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, and predictions for Wednesday, October 18.

Written and edited by

Sara Jane Gamelli

October 15, 2023; The New York Liberty defeat the Las Vegas Aces 87-73 in Game 3 of the 2023 WNBA Finals at Barclays Center Arena. (Brandon Todd/New York Liberty)

The Liberty avoid elimination

Best out of five games, the New York Liberty found themselves in a 0-2 hole entering Sunday's matchup against the Las Vegas Aces.

The No. 1 seed Aces were undefeated in the playoffs, which changed in game three. The no. 2 seed Liberty changed up their defensive scheme, and hit their shots. It was a night and day difference compared to games one and two, in terms of energy displayed and gameplay.

New York secured a 87-73 must win victory over the Aces, in which every starter finished positive +/- on the floor. With fluid ball movement, the Liberty primarily used Sabrina Ionescu as the on ball distributor, who finished with 11 assists. Jonquel Jones continued her stellar play not only defensively, but offensively on the perimeter. Jones finished with a team hight 27 points, 8 rebounds, 2 steals and 3 blocks. Four of the Liberty starters finished with points in double figures, with the exception of Ionescu, who scored 9 points. Much different from the first two games, New York shot 33-63 (52.4 percent) from the field, and 13-30 (43.3 percent) from long range.

Defensively, the Liberty were brilliant. Off the gate, Sandy Brondello matched Breanna Stewart often on Chelsea Gray, and Jonquel Jones on A'ja Wilson. In the past, New York's inability to get stops on defense often left them struggling on offense. In game 3, the Liberty improved vastly on transition defense, and heavily guarded the perimeter. The Aces, the No. 1 team offensively, shot 23-69 (33.3 percent) from the floor, and 7-22 (31.8 percent) from long range.

No team has ever come back down 0-2

Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones continued to be a dynamic force on the defensive end. With five blocks combined, both were spectacular in trapping down below, and keeping up on pace on the outside. Aside Kelsey Plum with 29 points, A'ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, and Jackie Young shot a combined 10-37 (27 percent) and 35 points. Aces guard Jackie Young had 26 and 24 points alone in games one and two. That should say a lot about the Liberty's grit and defense.

The Liberty looked much more like themselves in game 3. With another elimination game on the line, New York will have home court advantage for tonight's matchup. For Vegas, one more victory would seal their second consecutive WNBA Championship. With Chelsea Gray and Kiah Stokes out with injury, Becky Hammon will have the task of filling those roles tonight.

How to watch Game 4

In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 8 p.m. ET, at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York. If you're betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on ESPN.  For the best betting odds, stats and analysis, here is information to know.

WNBA Finals Odds Game 4: Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

2023 WNBA Championship Odds

New York Liberty: +210

Las Vegas Aces: -290

WNBA Finals Remaining Schedule

Game 4 : Wed, Oct 18: Las Vegas Aces @ New York Liberty, 8 p.m. EDT, ESPN
Game 5 *: Fri, Oct 20: New York Liberty @ Las Vegas Aces, 9 p.m. EDT, ESPN

*If necessary

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

Las Vegas Aces

  • LV Aces: 4-1 in their last 5 games.
  • 9-1  in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-19-0
  • O/U Record: 24-16-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-2-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 5-4-1 in the last 10 games.
  • 1st in Offensive Rating (113)
  • 1st in Offensive Rating in the Playoffs (110.5)
  • 1st in Defensive Rating (97.7)
  • 1st in Defensive Rating in the Playoffs (93.3)
  • 1st in Points Per Game (92.8)
  • 2nd in Pace: 98.58
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.3 (2nd)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.2 % (2nd)
  • Three-Point Percentage in the Playoffs: 37.4 % (3rd)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 34.8 (5th)
  • Rebounds Per Game in the Playoffs: 38.4(2nd)
  • LV ATS won last 10 games: Seattle (-20), Phoenix (-19), Chicago (-16, -17.5), Dallas (-10), New York (-4.5,-4.5),

New York Liberty

  • New York Liberty: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 7-3 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 19-21-0
  • O/U Record: 23-17-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 4-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 9-1 in the last 10 games.
  • 2nd in Offensive Rating (109.6)
  • 3rd in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (105.6)
  • 3rd in Defensive Rating (99.4)
  • 4th in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (106.6)
  • 2nd in Points Per Game (89.2)
  • 5th in Pace: 96.56
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.6 (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.4 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 32.9 % (4th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 37.9 (2nd)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 36.4 (5th)
  • New York ATS won last 10 games: Washington (-9.5), Connecticut (-4), Las Vegas (+7.5, +1.5)

New York Liberty -5.5 (-114)

The last time I picked the Liberty to cover the spread, they got crushed by 28 points. Now, game four is a much different story, and the Liberty will have the energy of their home crowd once again tonight.

You never liked to see injuries in any sport, especially on the biggest stage. What makes this matchup so special, is the monumental talent on both sides. With Chelsea Gray and Kiah Stokes out with foot injuries, it will be virtually impossible to replace both. Chelsea Gray is the heart and soul of the team, and the primary on ball distributor for the Aces. Averaging 15 points, 7.3 assists, and 1.3 steals in the series, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young will take over facilitating duties for Las Vegas. Kiah Stokes isn't much of a producer offensively, but she is a key player on defense and rebounds.

The Aces are plagued with injuries

The Aces will sill have a core trio of A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young, and Kelsey Plum. Through three playoff matchups against the Liberty, Wilson, Young, and Plum are averaging a combined 59.4 points combined. The Aces will have two voids to fill, and were ranked last in the season in bench points per game.

Becky Hammon will most likely rely on Cayla George and Sydney Colson, who averaged a combined 4.1 points in the regular season. If A'ja Wilson matches up with Breanna Stewart, George will have the task of guarding either Jones or Stewart. In the post season, she's averaged 0.3 points in 2.6 minutes of gameplay. Kierstan Bell will certainly see minutes at guard tonight as well.

Why New York will cover

The Liberty have all the momentum heading into game four, after playing in front of a record breaking 17,000 + fans last game. The loss of two players is crushing for an Aces team, who's been without Candace Parker since July. Unless the Liberty completely collapse, these will be two lopsided teams tonight. Not to take anything away from the Aces bench, they haven't been tasked with this matchup, and haven't played close to 40 minutes all playoffs.

Since it's the playoffs, I don't want to come outright and say this play is free. The Liberty will have a massive advantage with the injuries on the other side, and will certainly have the upside. With New York's adjustments on defense, they learned how to defend the guards, and even A'ja Wilson. With several improvements on both sides of the ball, I like New York +5.5 here.

Jonquel Jones over 17.5 Points (-134)

Season Stats PPG: 11.3 | FG: 52.7 % | 3 PT: 35.2 % | FT: 86.3 % | REB: 8.4 | AST: 1.8 | STL: 0.6 | BLK: 1.3

Playoff Stats: PPG: 18.2 | FG: 57.3 % | 3 PT: 33.3 % | FT: 78.7 % | REB: 11.7 | AST: 1.8 |STL: 0.7 | BLK: 2.3

Playoff stats vs LV: PPG: 21 | FG: 63.2 % | 3 PT: 38.5 % | FT: 76.9 % | REB: 9.3 | AST: 1.3 | STL: 1 | BLK: 2.7

Jonquel Jones has easily been the MVP for the Liberty in the second half of the season, and into the playoffs. An explosive player on both sides, Jones is averaging 18.2 points, 2.3 blocks, and 11.7 rebounds in nine playoff games. A player that can stretch the floor, Jones can hit the outside shot, and is shooting around 33 percent from long range. In three playoff matchups against the Aces, Jones is averaging an incredible 21 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1 steal, and 2.7 blocks on 63 percent field goal and 38.5 percent three point shooting.

When the Liberty couldn't find any sort of offense the first two games, New York always had that spark from Jones. A master defensively, Jones has been a fierce staple in protecting the rim, specifically A'ja Wilson. Now that she's found her outside shot fluidly, The Jones matchup should be a nightmare for the Aces once again tonight. She's had points in double digits in all 9 playoff games, including 8 double-doubles. With the absense of Kiah Stokes, I expect Jonquel Jones to feast on the mismatches below.

Why this prop will hit

Jonquel Jones has scored over 17.5 points in 6 out of the last ten games, and three of the last five. With an elimination game on the line, look for Jonquel to put her body on the line, and play her best at the Barclays. If there's any prop I trust, It's Jonquel Jones over points.

Stay tuned for more WNBA and betting related articles. Click here

Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at Ballislife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut/NYC area with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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