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Liberty vs. Sun Betting Odds & Predictions: WNBA Semis Game 2

Sara Jane Gamelli 5470 September 25, 2023 No Comments

The Connecticut Sun will matchup against the New York Liberty at home for Game two of the Semifinals. After dropping the first game to the Sun 78-63, New York will attempt to capture a win at home. Here, you will find the WNBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Tuesday, Sept. 26.

Written and edited by

Sara Jane Gamelli

BROOKLYN, NY - SEPTEMBER 24: Sabrina Ionescu #20 of the New York Liberty plays defense during the game against the Connecticut Sun during round two game four of the 2023 WNBA Playoffs on September 24, 2023 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. (Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images)

Tomorrow is game two of the WNBA semifinals between the New York Liberty (0-1, 0-1 Home) and the Connecticut Sun (1-0, 1-0 Away). Best of five games, the Liberty will have another home matchup. With New York favored by six, the Connecticut Sun utilized their defense, in which they defeated New York 78-63 in game one. With coach Sandy Brondello calling the loss "the worst game of the year," the Liberty were held to a season low 63 points.

In Rebecca Allen's return to New York, No. 9 scored 18 points, and 4-6 from downtown. For Connecticut, DeWanna Bonner had a team high 20 points, three blocks, one steal, and seven rebounds. A collective team effort on both ends of the floor, the Sun had 7 blocks and steals as a unit, and forced New York to turnover the ball 14 times. The Sun, led by Stephanie White, limited the Liberty to zero fast break points, and four points in the paint throughout the second half of the matchup.

The Liberty struggled in Game One

For New York, all five starters finished negative +/- on the court, in which their offense was stale and stagnant the entire night. With no sense of flow or consistency, Breanna Stewart was held to 7-25 field goal shooting, in which she missed all eight three-point shots. Jonquel Jones was limited to four second half inside points, and Courtney Vandersloot with seven. Sabrina Ionescu finished 50 percent from the three, however, was bottled up a majority of the night, and didn't score inside the perimeter. Betnijah Laney, had 19 points, two steals, and two blocks in their last victory against Connecticut. On Sunday, Laney was held to three points. Overall, the Connecticut Sun found their rhythm offensively, created stops defensively, and the New York Liberty looked unrecognizable.

In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, player prop bets, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 8 p.m. ET, at the Barclays Center, located in Brooklyn, New York. If you're betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on ESPN. For the best betting odds, stats and analysis, here is information to know.

WNBA Odds Game 2: New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

WNBA Semifinals Series Odds: New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New York Liberty -8.5 (-114)

Game two should be a classic bounce back performance for the New York Liberty. In front of a sellout crowd of 9,442, the New York Liberty were held to a season low 63 points. In the loss, New York's offense looked unrecognizable, as they finished the night shooting under 35 percent from the field. All five starters struggled offensively, including Breanna Stewart and Betnijah Laney. With the best of five series, this is a must win for New York, who will need to utilize home court advantage, before heading to Connecticut on Friday. With the playoffs, it starts off at 0-0, and its often hard to gauge the outcomes this time of the year. I will utilize last night's matchup, in the addition to the four regular season games to formulate my best bets for Tuesday.

Connecticut made sure to shut down New York's production inside the paint by Jonquel Jones second half of the game. For the first half of the matchup, we saw Jones utilize her size and strength inside, in which No. 35 finished with 10 points. New York has gone cold from three-point shooting, especially the last two games. Breanna Stewart, an MVP candidate, finished 0-8 from the field, Betnijah Laney, 1-9, and Sabrina Ionescu 4-14 from the field. Through four playoff games, Connecticut remains second in defensive rating (94), and leads in opponent points per game (70). Even with Connecticut playing tough defense, it's hard to envision New York reliving their underwhelming offensive performance.

Why New York will cover

New York still ranks fourth in offensive rating (103) in four playoff games, and fourth in defensive rating (100). In multiple regular season games, the Liberty were 3-1 against the spread against Connecticut. In the meetings, the Liberty averaged 88.5 points, 40 rebounds, and 23.3 assists in four victories. Additionally, they shot 48.4 percent from the field, and 34.7 percent from the field. It's extremely hard to envision this offense limited again, which consists of multiple former MVPs, Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones. New York has the stardom with Sabrina Ionescu, Courtney Vandersloot, and Betnijah Laney in the backcourt.

In four playoff matchups, the New York liberty are 2-2 against the spread, and the Connecticut Sun 3-1. For a team that ranks second in perimeter defense this post season, expect New York to tightly guard DeWanna Bonner, in addition to Ty Harris, Rebecca Allen, and Natisha Hiedeman.

Jonquel Jones to record a double-double (-105)

Season Stats: PPG: 11.3 | FG: 52.7 % | 3 PT: 35.2 % | FT: 86.3 % | REB: 8.4 | AST: 1.8 |STL: 0.6 | BLK: 1.3

Playoff Stats: PPG: 17.7 | FG: 62.1 % | 3 PT: 14.3 % | FT: 80 % | REB: 12.3 | AST: 2 |STL:0.7 | BLK: 2.3

Season Stats vs CT: PPG: 13 | FG: 50 % | 3 PT: 25 % | FT: 88.9 % | REB: 8.8 | AST: 8 | STL: 0.5 | BLK: 2.3

If there's any prop bet, I'm confident in, it's Jonquel Jones. Although the Connecticut Sun limited her looks in the second half, Jones had several inside buckets, including ten first half points. No. 35 has significant size and strength advantage against Connecticut. The biggest threat to Jones besides Bonner will be Olivia Nelson Ododa, who finished with one block and two steals last matchup.

In New York's game two win against Washington, the Liberty relied heavily on Jones, including putting her at the point. Last game, there was some success with the pick and roll between Jones and Breanna Stewart. Although the Sun are the best team in the playoffs in terms of opponent points in the paint (28.5), I would expect Jones to utilize her size, and draw fouls early on. In the postseason, Jones has shown how crucial she is to this New York team, especially when the outside shots aren't falling. The Liberty forward is averaging over 17 points and 12 assists in the past three games. With Connecticut as one of the top defensive teams, look for the offense to flow through Jonquel Jones.

Why this prop will hit

Jones is coming off three straight double-doubles, including two against Washington. In four regular season matchups, Jones hit this prop 50 percent against the Sun, and twelve games, including the Commissioners Cup victory over Las Vegas. One of the only bright spots for the Liberty in game one, expect Jones to be highly involved Tuesday night.

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

New York Liberty

  • New York Liberty: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 8-2 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 19-21-0
  • O/U Record: 23-17-0
  • 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 4-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 7-3 in the last 10 games.
  • 2nd in Offensive Rating (109.6)
  • 4th in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (103)
  • 3rd in Defensive Rating (99.4)
  • 4th in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (100)
  • 2nd in Points Per Game (89.2)
  • 5th in Pace: 96.56
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.6 (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.4 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 28.6 % (6th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 37.9 (2nd)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 38 (T2)
  • New York ATS won last 10 games: Phoenix (-12.5), Minnesota (-9), Las Vegas (-2), Connecticut (-7.5), Chicago (-9), Washington (-9.5)

Connecticut Sun

  • CT Sun: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 7-3 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-17-2
  • O/U Record: 22-18-0
  • 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-3 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 4-6 in the last 10 games.
  • 4th in Offensive Rating (103.2)
  • 2nd in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (111.4)
  • 2nd in Defensive Rating (98.8)
  • 2nd in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (94)
  • 4th in Points Per Game (82.7)
  • 10th in Pace: 95.14
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 79 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36% (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 42.6 % (1st)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 33.6 (8th)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 34 (6th)
  • Connecticut ATS won last 10 games: Chicago (-5.5), New York (+6), LA (-6.5, -10.5), Indiana (-10), Minnesota (-8.5, -5.5), New York (+8.5)

Head-to-head stats: Liberty vs. Sun

Season Matchups:

Game 1: New York 81, Connecticut 65 (New York -6.5, under 164.5)
Game 2: New York 89, Connecticut 81 (New York -4.5, over 168.5)
Game 3: New York 95, Connecticut 90 OT (Connecticut +6, over 166.5)
Game 4: New York 89, Connecticut 58 (New York +7.5, under 160)

Playoffs

Game 1: Connecticut 78, New York 63 (Connecticut +85, under 163)

  • Connecticut won the regular season series 4-0
  • The Liberty were 3-1 ATS vs. the Sun this season.
  • Game Points (AVG) last 10 matchups: 154
  • New York average points last 10 games: 90
  • Connecticut average points last 10 games: 82

Stay tuned for more WNBA and betting related articles. Click here

Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at BallisLife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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