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NBA Betting: In-Season Tournament Quarterfinals Odds

Sara Jane Gamelli 3700 December 4, 2023 No Comments

Written and edited by

Sara Jane Gamelli

In its inaugural season, the NBA In-Season Tournament is set to see its first quarterfinals, where eight teams remain for the championship. In this article, I will break down the games for Monday, Dec. 4.

With mixed reviews from players, coaches, and players, the In-Season Tournament has dwindled down to eight final teams in both the Eastern and Western Conferences. In an exciting sequence of games last week, the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, and the Indiana Pacers all won their respective groups in the East. For the West, the New Orleans, the Los Angeles Lakers, and the Sacramento Kings took control of the groups in the West. For the final slots, the Phoenix Suns and New York Knicks finished as wild card winners.

In a win or go home knock out round, the first-ever NBA In-Season Tournament continues with the Quarterfinals starting tonight. Here you will find the NBA betting odds, lines, schedule, and predictions for the NBA In-Season Tournament.

Quarterfinals Schedule

Monday, Dec. 4

  • TNT, 7:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics (-5.5) (-225) @ Indiana Pacers (+185): O/U 242.5
  • TNT, 10 p.m. ET: New Orleans Pelicans (+136) @ Sacramento Kings (-3.5) (-162): O/U 236.5

Tuesday, Dec. 5

  • TNT, 7:30 p.m. ET: New York Knicks (+164) @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5) (-198): O/U 225.5
  • TNT, 10 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns (+110) @ Los Angeles Lakers (-2) (-130): O/U 227.5

NBA In-Season Tournament Championship Odds

  • Boston Celtics: +300
  • Milwaukee Bucks: +340
  • Los Angeles Lakers: +550
  • Sacramento Kings: +550
  • Phoenix Suns: +650
  • New Orleans Pelicans: +1200
  • Indiana Pacers: +1300
  • New York Knicks: +1400

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

NBA Eastern Conference: Boston Celtics (3) vs. Indiana Pacers (2)

The Celtics won the Eastern Conference NBA Group C

Tonight, the Boston Celtics (15-4, 6-4 away) will matchup against the Indiana Pacers (10-8, 6-5 home) on the road tonight. In a must win game, the winner will advance to the semi-finals. The winner of Eastern Conference Group C, the Celtics finished group play with a win-loss record of 3-1. Averaging 112.3 points per game in the first round, Boston held opponents to 105.5 points, and finished with a point differential of +6.8.

With group play wins over the Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors, and Chicago Bulls, their only loss came against the Orlando Magic. 8-2 in the last 10 games, the Celtics have three straight wins against the Philadelphia 76ers, Chicago Bulls, and Atlanta Hawks. Averaging 114 points over the last 10 matchups, the lucky green will be without center Kristaps Porzingis tonight, due to a calf strain injury. Having initially suffered the injury on Nov. 24, Porzingis will miss his fourth straight game.

The Point-Differential has been proven controversial

For the knockout rounds, point differential doesn't count. It certainly sparked a debate around the league, after Boston's 27-point victory over the Chicago Bulls. While some players have expressed their excitement for the in-season tournament, others stated the point differential changes the morality of the game. With that said, the Celtics made a statement on Nov. 28, when they needed to defeat the Bulls by 23 points. Much like "sweating" out bets, Boston's run to the quarterfinals clearly wasn't as easy.

How Boston fares against the Indiana Pacers

8-2 in the last 10 matchups against the Indiana Pacers, the C's will most likely start forward Al Horford in place of Porzingis. Despite the Pacers having a high-powered offense, Jayson Tatum and company absolutely slaughtered the Pacers 155-104 on Nov. 1. Covering the -13 spread, the green shot equally 57 percent from the field and long range. In fact, Porzingis only finished with 13 points and 6 rebounds, on 3-7, and 1-3 three-point shooting. Given the Unicorn only contributed to 8.3 percent of the total offense that night, Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Sam Hauser, and Derrick White combined for 81 points. With eight total players with points in double figures, Boston has put on full display their ability to defeat the Pacers, and with the help of bench players.

In 4 total group play first round tournament games, the Celtic's finished with an average of 112.3 points, 44.8 rebounds, 6.5 steals, 5 blocks, 45.7 percent field goal percentage, and 35.8 three-point percentage. With the increasing chemistry, especially with role players, the Celtics are figuring out how to win games that resulted in losses last season. With the intoxicating play by Tatum and Brown, combining for 46.6 tournament points, Brown is shooting lights out from downtown, at 43.3 percent.

Boston hasn't performed well on the road in NBA In-Season Tournament games

Tonight, the C's travel to Indiana, where their only loss in group play came on the road. For some teams, home court advantage matters, and for the Celtic's, that's been vital to their success. Only averaging 102 points on the road during tournament games, Boston has their backs up the wall against Indiana. Shooting significantly worse in away games, there is a 15-rebound differential along with a 9 percent three-point differential.

While the Celtics ranked near last in bench points (25.9) overall this season, they rank 5th in total bench points in four tournament games (29.3). With head coach Joe Mazzulla getting the role players more minutes off the bench, the rotation will absolutely be vital for Boston tonight. Second behind the Lakers in three-point percentage (47.5), they also trailed Los Angeles for the leading field goal percentage (53.1 percent).

Injuries

Celtics:

Kristaps Porzingis, center: OUT (Calf Strain)

Pacers:

Obi Toppin, forward: GTD
Tyrese Haliburton, guard: GTD

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

*ATS-Against the Spread

Boston Celtics

  • Boston Celtics: 4-1 in their last 5 games.
  • 8-2 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 8-9-2
  • O/U Record: 8-10-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 4-6 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-3 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 3-6-1 in the last 10 games.
  • T-9th in Offensive Rating (117.1)
  • 2nd in Defensive Rating (107.6)
  • 8th in Points Per Game (116.7)
  • 23rd in Pace: 98.66
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 107.4 (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36.5 (14th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 47.1(3rd)
  • Boston ATS won last 10 games: New York Knicks (-9.5), Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5), Atlanta Hawks (-7.5), Chicago Bulls (-12.5)

NBA Western Conference: New Orleans Pelicans (3) vs. Sacramento Kings(2)

The Indiana Pacers are undefeated in group play

While the Celtics had a tough journey getting to the quarterfinals, the Pacers cruised to victories over the Cleveland Cavaliers, Philadelphia 76ers, Atlanta Hawks, and Detroit Pistons. The clear winner of Eastern Conference Group A, Indiana averaged an incredible 136.6 points and held opponents to 126.8 points in four matchups. Finishing with a +9.7-point differential, the Pacers might be shorthanded tonight, with Obi Toppin and Tyrese Haliburton listed as game-time decisions. Also listed out is forward Jalen Smith tonight.

Overall, the Pacers have surprised the NBA having the clear-cut top offense in the league. 18 games into the regular season, their sizzling shooting hasn't slowed down, especially in tournament games. Although the Pacers have a ton of offensive weapons, we cannot ignore the surge and stardom of guard Tyrese Haliburton. Averaging 27 points and 11.8 assists this season, Haliburton not only has entered the MVP conversation, but put up 28.5 points in four group play games.

The Pacers have an extremely deep roster

Aside from Haliburton, Indiana has several role key players, and their bench is exceptionally deep. With eight players averaging points in double figures, head coach Rick Carlisle relies on rotation of Haliburton, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Bruce Brown, and Obi Toppin. Off the bench, Aaron Nesmith, Bennedict Mathurin, Jalen Smith, T.J. McConnel, and Andrew Nembhard. Finding a way to win without Haliburton, the Pacers are coming off an impressive 144-129 victory over the Miami Heat, led by Bruce Brown with 30 points. While many didn't see this sort of offensive production coming, Indiana clearly has several players who can score. With six players finishing with points in double figures against Miami, Obi Toppin erupted for 22 points, and Aaron Nesmith, for 20.

When I think about the Indiana Pacers, I think of players that are talented, yet couldn't get the proper playing time or fit with their previous clubs. For one, Obi Toppin was a wasted talent with the Knicks, and Aaron Nesmith didn't have room with a loaded Celtics roster. So far, the Indiana and Pacers colossal trade involving Hield, Haliburton for the exchange for Domantas Sabonis has paid off for the organization.

Their offense is electric

Leading the league in offense and pace, the Pacers have the 4th best three-point percentage (38.5 percent), and best overall field goal percentage in the NBA (51.1 percent). 5-5 in their last ten games, Indiana has gone over points 9 times, and are putting up nearly 131 in those last ten matchups. While the offense has been dynamic, Indiana remains one of the worst teams in defensive efficiency. Giving up a league high 125.9 points a game, they remained a low-end defensive team through group play. With the over total hitting in almost every game, they will face the Celtics, who have an elite defense, and don't allow a ton of points.

Overall, Indiana finished their four tournament matchups leading the NBA in scoring with 136.5 points per game. Opposite from the Celtics, the Pacers performed much more efficient on the road during tournament games, averaging 144.5 points on the road. Only putting up 128.5 points in two home games, Carlisle's squad shooting efficiency is way down at their home arena. If Haliburton and Toppin are unable to suit up, the Pacers will endure a tough matchup against the Celtics, who already blew them out once.

Indiana Pacers

  • Indiana Pacers: 2-5 in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 10-8-0
  • O/U Record: 16-2-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 4-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 9-1 in the last 10 games.
  • 1st in Offensive Rating (123.8)
  • 29th in Defensive Rating (120.8)
  • 1st in Points Per Game (128.8)
  • 1st in Pace: 104.14
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 125.9 (32nd)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 38.4 % (T-3)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 39.4 (31st)
  • Indiana ATS won last 10 games: Milwaukee Bucks (+1), Philadelphia 76ers (+6.5), Atlanta Hawks (+3.5), Detroit Pistons (-9.5), Miami Heat (+4.5)

Predictions and Prop Plays:

  • Celtics -5.5, over 236.5 total points
  • Jayson Tatum 25+ points
  • Bruce Brown 8+ points
  • Sam Hauser 8+ points
  • Buddy Hield O .5 steals

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Sacramento Kings

The New Orleans Pelicans (11-10, 3-6 away) will matchup against the Sacramento Kings (11-7, 6-2 home) on the road tonight. Cruising to 3-1 in the NBA In-Season Tournament, the Pelicans took control and won the Western Conference Group B. In a division with the Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, the Denver Nuggets, and Los Angeles Clippers, the Pelicans didn't have the easiest of matchups.

In four group play matchups, New Orleans put up 115.8 points per game, and limiting opponents to 107.5 points. A +8.3-point differential, the Pelicans are coming off a 124-118 loss against the disgruntled Chicago Bulls. 6-4 in their last ten matchups, New Orleans is 7-3 against the spread, and 3-7 against totals. Averaging 117 over the ten-game span, the Pelicans finally have a healthy trio in Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and C.J. McCollum. With McCollum only playing eight games this season, the Pelicans now have one of their main scorers and distributors tonight against the Kings.

Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are soaring

It's no question the Pelicans were one of the prime teams in the Western Conference last season before Zion and Ingram went down with injuries. With seven players averaging points in double figures, the Pelicans also have the return of Trey Murphy III, who's putting up 18 points on one game this season. With Jonas Valanciunas nearly averaging a double-double at the 5, Hebert Jones and Jordan Hawkins have been decent role players. UConn's Hawkins looking like a steal in last year's draft, the Pelicans have heavy hitters in Williamson and Ingram, both combining for 46.9 points per game.

Playing at an elite level, Williamson has held up the slack and put up 25.3 points in four group play games. In addition, with Ingram averaging 26.8 points per game, it's scary to think how productive this team can be offensively tonight against Sacramento.

The Pelicans have a healthy starting five

Ranking 16th in offensive rating (113.6), the Pelicans have managed to keep afloat amid several injuries. Defensively, this team is 13th in defensive efficiency (112.5) and remained a top three defensive team during group play games. With their staters outperforming their bench offensively throughout the tournament, the starting five will need to be healthy and strong tonight.

Like the Celtics, the Pelicans have struggled on the road in two tournament games. Only averaging 108.5 points per game, New Orleans shoots significantly more efficient at home, putting up 15 more points in front of their fans. Putting up only 101 points in tournament losses, the Pelicans have the upside of a 6-4 record against the Kings in their last ten matchups.

For a team that's grabbing 44.4 rebounds per game, it will be vital to control the boards against Sacramento tonight. The Kings have a ton of momentum after being the Nuggets 123-117 and are fairly healthy for tonight's matchup. Look for Zion, Ingram, and McCollum to hold it down tonight for New Orleans. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Hawkins has a big role off the bench.

Injuries

Pelicans:

Larry Nance Jr, forward: OUT
Matt Ryan, forward: OUT

Kings:

Alex Len, center: OUT
Chris Duarte, forward: OUT

New Orleans Pelicans

  • New Orleans Pelicans: 2-3 in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 12-18-0
  • O/U Record: 9-12-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-3 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 3-7 in the last 10 games.
  • 16th in Offensive Rating (113.6)
  • 13th in Defensive Rating (112.5)
  • 15th in Points Per Game (114)
  • 12th in Pace: 100.48
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 113.2 (16)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 35.2 % (24th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 44.2 (12th)
  • New Orleans ATS won last 10 games: Denver Nuggets (+4.5), Minnesota Timberwolves (+7.5), Sacramento Kings (+2, +1.5), Los Angeles Clippers (+5.5), Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5), San Antonio Spurs (-12.5).

The Kings were undefeated in the NBA In-Season Tournament group play

The Sacramento Kings are still in the running for the NBA In-Season tournament, however, have been a bit of disappointment following last season. Undefeated in the Western Conference Group C, Sacramento has victories over the Minnesota Timberwolves, Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, and San Antonio Spurs. Putting up 120.5 points per game, the Kings allowed opponents to put up 113 points in four group play matchups. With a +7.5-point differential, the Kings will have home court advantage, where they are undefeated in the tournament.

7-3 in their last ten games, the Kings upset the Denver Nuggets, and are 6-4 against the spread and over totals. Led by De'Aaron Fox, who's back from injury, the Kings have a solid starting five with Domantas Sabonis, Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, and Harrison Barnes. 13th in Offensive rating (114.2), the Kings are once again a disappointment on the defensive end. No specially leading in several statistical categories, the Kings are putting up 121 points on average in the last ten matchups and will matchup with the Pelicans who won the last two matchups.

The Kings play much more efficient at home

Sure, the Kings aren't the best statistically, however, they had a few tough matchups with the Warriors and Nuggets for group play games. Producing significantly less offensively at home during the tournament, Kings averaged nearly 15 percent betting from long range on the road. Contrary, to the tournament stats, in 8 home matchups, the Mike Browns Kings put up nearly 10 more points a game.

4th in the Western Conference, it's too early to tell what kind of team this unit truly is, especially with injuries to Fox. With Fox putting up close to 30 points per game, he only missed one tournament game. In fact, in three group play games, the guard averaged an astonishing 36 points, 8.7 assists, and 8 rebounds per game. Known to perform well against New Orleans, the Kings guard has a career average of 23.1 points against the Pelicans.

The Kings are only favored by -3.5 points this matchup, and the Pelicans will be knocking on the door. With the Pelicans as one of the more elite teams around the perimeter, the Kings will need to find ways to find looks inside and get to the free-throw line. On papers, both of these teams have talent, and stack up statistics wise. However, the crowd is one of the most energized in all of the NBA at the Golden 1 Center.

Sacramento Kings

  • Sacramento Kings: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 7-3 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 10-8-0
  • O/U Record: 10-8-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 4-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 6-4 in the last 10 games.
  • 13th in Offensive Rating (114.2)
  • 21st in Defensive Rating (114.4)
  • 10th in Points Per Game (116.5)
  • 9th in Pace: 100.86
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 116.7 (21st)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 35.5 % (20th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 44(17th)
  • Sacramento ATS won last 10 games: Cleveland Cavaliers (-1), Los Angeles Lakers (+1.5), San Antonio Spurs (-8.5), Dallas Mavericks (+1.5), Minnesota Timberwolves (+4.5), Denver Nuggets (-3.5)

Predictions and Prop Plays:

Pelicans +5.5
Zion Williamson 18+ point
C.J. McCollum 5+ assists

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Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at Ballislife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut/NYC area with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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