Tonight, is Game 3 of the NBA Finals. With the series tied 1-1, The 1 Seed Denver Nuggets (13-4, 4-3 Away) will face off against the 8th Seed Miami Heat (13-7, 6-2 Home). The Miami Heat have home court advantage the next two games, and only have two losses at home in the playoffs. These teams will play tonight at 8:30 PM EST, at the Kaseya Center, located in Miami, Florida. In addition, the matchup will air on ABC. If you are looking for the best betting odds and stats, here is information to know:
NBA Championship Odds:
Denver Nuggets: -275
Miami Heat: +225
G Collin Gillespie (OUT): Leg.
PG Tyler Herro (OUT): Hand
SG Victor Oladipo (OUT): Knee.
C Cody Zeller (Probable): Sprained right foot.
Aaron Gordon OVER 12.5 Points Scored (-120).
Series Numbers: 14 PPG, 6.5 REB, 1.5 AST.
Field Goal Percentage: 70.6 %.
Three-Point Percentage: 66.7 %.
Free Throw Percentage: 50 %.
Average minutes played: 37.
Game 1: 16 PTS / 70 % FG / 0 % 3PT/ 36 MIN.
Game 2: 12 PTS/ 71.4 % FG / 100 % 3PT / 38 MIN.
Aaron Gordon had a great Game 1, scoring 16 Points in 25 minutes on 6-10 shooting. Gordon took advantage of the size matchup and was able to find the backdoor cuts. Although Gordon only added 12 Points in Game 2, he shot 100 percent from the three, and played a series high 38 minutes. It’s important to note, Aaron Gordon only attempted 7 shots in Game 2, compared to his 10 shot attempts in Game 1.
The Miami Heat did their homework after Game 1 and adjusted. I do think Aaron Gordon will have a few more perimeter looks, as well as backdoor cuts again this game. The Nuggets are 0-3 when Jokic scores 40 points or more. I expect more from Aaron Gordon this game, especially in the paint. Also, Gordon hit over 12.5 points 9 out of his 17 playoffs appearances. Normally I would say no to this prop considering Gordon’s inconsistency. However, the Nuggets are a bigger team, and Aaron Gordon is averaging close to 40 minutes a game. He will absolutely be an x-factor for Game 3. I like Aaron Gordon OVER 12.5 Points
Bruce Brown OVER 0.5 Three-Pointers Made (-155).
Series Numbers: 10.5 PTS/50 % FG/ 50 % 3PT/24 MIN.
Game 1: 10 PTS / 2-3 3PT/ 21 MIN.
Game 2: 11 PTS /1-3 3PT/ 27 MIN.
It’s hard to believe this NBA player prop bet is sitting here for the third straight game in a row. I love this bet, and I’ve played it the last three games. Bruce Brown is averaging 24 minutes a game, and 8 shot attempts a game. He hit a three, even when the Nuggets facilitating was almost absent last game. Brown hit at least 1 three-pointer in two straight games, and 8 out of his last 10 games. In addition, he’s a veteran who’s shooting 50 percent from the three this series, and 41.7 percent against Miami this season. I like Bruce Brown OVER 0.5 made Three-Pointers.
Jimmy Butler OVER 6.5 assists (-120).
Series Numbers: 17 PPG, 8 AST.
Game 1: 7 Assists.
Game 2: 9 Assists.
Jimmy Butler is not only known for his scoring ability in the playoffs, but he’s excellent at making plays for his teammates and distributing the ball. I think 6.5 assists is low, considering he had 9 in Game 2. Butler has been hampered with an ankle injury, and it’s uncertain the extent of his injury. Also, he hasn’t been as explosive when it comes to scoring and offense. The Heat shot nearly 50 percent from the three last game, and I expect Butler to do whatever it takes to win. In addition, he averaged 6 assists against Boston, and hit over 6.5 assists 3 out of the last 5 games. I like Jimmy Butler OVER 6.5 assists.
Gabe Vincent OVER 13.5 Points (-135).
Series Numbers: 21 PPG / 57 % FG / 56.4 % 3PT / 35 MIN.
Game 1: 19 Points.
Game 2: 23 Points.
Again, this is one of my favorite NBA prop bets that was played in Game 2. In the absence of Tyler Herro, Vincent is playing incredibly well. He’s averaging 30-40 minutes and attempting 13 shots a game. In addition, he averaged nearly 16 Points against Boston in the Eastern Conference finals. The 13.5 Points and over hit 6 out of the last 10 games. I like Vincent starting in place of Kyle Lowry, in addition to his shooting volume and minutes played. Plus, he’s shooting nearly 60 percent from downtown this series. I like Gabe Vincent OVER 13.5 Points.
•Denver averages 115.2 points per game.
•Miami averages 110.7 points per game.
•Denver ranks 6th in points allowed with 107.4 opponent points per game.
•Miami ranks 5th in points allowed with 107.3 opponent points per game.
•Denver ranks 7th in rebounds per game with 43.9.
•Miami ranks 11th in rebounds per game with 40.6.
•Denver ranks 1st in point differential at +7.8
•Miami ranks 2nd in point differential at +3.4.
•Denver ranks 12th in blocked shots with 3.8 per game.
•Miami ranks 16th in blocked shots with 3.5 per game.
•Denver averages 38.2 percent from the 3-point range, while Miami averages 39.2 percent from the 3-point range.
LAST 10 GAMES + GAME PREDICTION:
SPREAD: Miami -1.5.
-Denver covered the spread in 5 of their last 10 games (5-5-0).
-Miami covered the spread in 6 of their last 10 games (6-4-0).
–Denver has a 54-44-1 record ATS this season.
-Miami has a 45-56-3 record ATS this season.
–Miami is 21-28-2 in HOME games ATS this season.
-Denver is 23-25-0 in AWAY games ATS this season.
Miami is coming off a Game 2 win on the road and covered the spread three out of their last five games. They are at Home with all the momentum, and I expect them to keep things close with the Nuggets. They are 6-4 in their last ten against the spread. It’s important to note the Heat covered the spread 5 out of their 7 games against Boston. I grabbed the spread at +2.5 a few days ago. Give me Miami +3.
MONEY LINE: Miami Heat ML.
-Denver won the Money Line 7 out of their last 10 games.
-Miami won the Money Line 6 of their last 10 games.
As much as I want to pick Miami at home, it’s hard to imagine the Nuggets dropping two straight games in the NBA Finals. I think Miami will cover here, and Erik Spoelstra knows how to win. I think Denver will get more guys involved and step up their perimeter defense against Miami. Denver still has an above .500 record on the road in the playoffs. I expect better games from Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. Give me Nuggets Money Line.
-Denver Avg +/- vs O/U Line: -1.56.
-Miami Avg +/- vs O/U Line: +0.43.
-Denver Overall O/U Record: 47-51-1.
–Miami Overall O/U Record: 53-51-0.
-Denver Overall AWAY O/U Record: 25-23-0.
–Miami Overall HOME O/U Record: 27-24-0.
-Denver hit the OVER 5 times in their last 10 games.
-Miami hit the UNDER 6 times in their last 10 games.
Game 1 hit the under, due to poor shooting by both teams. Game 2 hit the Over, which was set at 216, and hit at 219. I do expect Denver to facilitate more, and to swing the ball around in Game 3. Also, can Miami shoot nearly 50 percent from the three this game? I like the under here at 214.5.
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Sara Jane is a full-time Content Creator, focusing on both college basketball, the NBA, NFL, and Writer of Ballislife.com. Don’t forget to follow her on Twitter/YouTube/Twitch/Kick/ Instagram: @GGirlSports.
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