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Liberty vs. Aces, Betting Odds & Predictions: WNBA Finals Game 1

Sara Jane Gamelli 3921 October 8, 2023 No Comments

The New York Liberty will matchup against the Las Vegas Aces on the road for game one of the WNBA Finals. The Liberty will look to win their first ever championship, while the Aces will attempt to defend their title. Here you will find the WNBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Sunday, Oct. 8.

Written and edited by

Sara Jane Gamelli

WNBA Finals Odds Game 1: New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

WNBA Championship Odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

The series will be a "dogfight"

Photo Credit: Brandon Todd/New York Liberty

Today marks the start of the WNBA Finals between the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces. This will be New York's first appearance since 2002, and the Aces will make their second consecutive finals. Head coach Sandy Brondello, of the Liberty, and Becky Hammon, of the Aces, are the first time former players in the WNBA finals. Two elite coaches, Hammon and Brondello have several connections.

Hammon was a former player for the New York Liberty from 1999-2006, while Brondello was an assistant coach for the San Antonio Stars. Coincidentally, Becky Hammon finished her WNBA career as a player for the Stars. In 2018, San Antonio moved to Las Vegas, and were renamed the Aces.

With the regular season series tied 2-2, the New York Liberty defeated the Las Vegas Aces 82-63 for their first Commissioners Cup victory. Each team is undefeated at home, with neither winning on the road in four regular season meetings.

The Aces finished with a WNBA record 34-6 record, while the Liberty finished a franchise best 32-8. Each of two teams ranks first and second in points per game, points per game differential, field goal percentage, opposing field goal percentage, three-point percentage, free-throw percentage, and assists per game. A combined 32 All-Star selections, this is the matchup the entire league has been waiting for. In the best of five games, the Aces will home court advantage for games one and two.

Where and how to watch game one

In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, player prop bets, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 3 p.m. ET, at Michelob ULTRA Arena, located in Las Vegas, Nevada. If you're betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on ABC.  For the best betting odds, stats and analysis, here is information to know.

Aces -4.5 (-110)

Season Stats PPG: 92.8 | FG: 48.6 % | 3 PT: 37.2 % | FT: 84 % | REB: 34.8 | AST: 21.7 |STL: 8.1 | BLK: 4.8

Playoff Stats: PPG: 86.2 | FG: 45.1 % | 3 PT: 35.8 % | FT: 89.1 % | REB: 39.8 | AST: 18.2 |STL: 8.4 | BLK: 5.6

Season Stats vs New York: PPG: 83 | FG: 45 % | 3 PT: 35.9 % | FT: 83.9 % | REB: 29.3 | AST: 22 | STL: 7.8 | BLK:3

The Las Vegas Aces are undefeated in the postseason, although they were tested in game three of the Semifinals against Dallas. A regular season regular of 23-17-0 against the spread, the Aces are 3-2 ATS in the postseason. In fact, they covered in three straight, and lost the -6.5 and -10.5 spreads against Dallas. They have the best record throughout the postseason, and remain first in defensive and net rating.

Despite their slight regression towards the back end of the season, Las Vegas has shined throughout the playoffs. A'ja Wilson had three consecutive 30 plus games, which is the most in WNBA History. The Aces will matchup against the Liberty, who rank second in third in offensive and defensive rating.

With home court advantage, the Liberty face an Aces team who suffered only one loss at home. With the series split 2-2 and with two dominant teams, it's difficult to make solid predictions for the finals.

Why the Aces will cover game one

Both teams made history in their win columns, and New York did win the Commissioners Cup on their [Aces] home court. Although the Liberty were tested in the first two rounds of the playoffs, they went 17-3 on the road. After a game one defeat, they won three straight, including two on the road against Connecticut.

In two road games against Las Vegas, New York performed significantly worse than in Brooklyn. They averaged 78 points, 29.5 rebounds and 22 assists. They average about 15 rebounds more at home (45.5), which is a bit alarming. Although the Liberty shot fairly well from deep, their field goal percentage dropped to 43.3 percent in Vegas.

This should be a close series between the Las Vegas Aces and the New York Liberty. I do believe the Aces will take game one on their home court, based off the regular season statistics. I wouldn't be surprised if the Liberty steal game one, however all the statistics and history point to the Aces taking this one.

Chelsea Gray O 22.5 Pts + Ast

Season Stats PPG: 15.3 | FG: 49 % | 3 PT: 42.1 % | FT: 89.7 % | REB: 4 | AST: 7.3 |STL: 1.4 | BLK: 0.6

Playoff Stats: PPG: 16 | FG: 45.1 % | 3 PT: 33.3 % | FT: 100 % | REB: 4.6 | AST: 6.4  STL: 1.6 | BLK: 1.2

Season Stats vs New York: PPG: 16.8 | FG: 44.1 % | 3 PT: 33.3 % | FT: 76.9% | REB: 5.8 | AST: 8 | STL: 1.8 | BLK:0.5

Chelsea Gray, the point guard of the Aces, was the 2022 Finals MVP for a reason. Known for her notorious mid-range shot, Gray is the ultimate facilitator for this Aces team. In the matchups against New York, the guard averaged over 16 points and 8 assists per game. Known as "playoff Chelsea," the Aces will face their toughest opponent yet here in the Finals.

Over 22.5 points and assists hit seven of the last ten games, and two of the five post season games. Gray thrives in crucial games, and will be forced to move the ball, and at times take shots herself.

With the first two games in Las Vegas, Gray performed superior on the Aces home court. In 20 home games, the point guard averaged 16.6 points, and 7.3 assists, on 46.5 three-point shooting. In four playoff games at home, she's averaging over 16 points and 7 assists, 45.5 percent shooting. I expect the ball to be in her hands for a majority of the series.

Betnijah Laney O 22.5 Pts + Reb + Ast

Season Stats PPG: 12.8 | FG: 49.9 % | 3 PT: 39.2 % | FT: 79.1 % | REB: 3.3 | AST: 2.4 | STL: 0.9 | BLK: 0.1

Playoff Stats: PPG: 17 | FG: 48.2 % | 3 PT: 43.8 % | FT: 75 % | REB: 5.2 | AST: 3 |STL: 0.7 | BLK: 0

Season Stats vs Las Vegas: PPG: 12.5 | FG: 50 % | 3 PT: 41.2 % | FT: 87.5 % | REB: 5.3 | AST: 2.8 | STL: 0.5 | BLK:0

Betnijah Laney has been the ultimate x-factor for the New York Liberty on both sides of the ball. When she doesn't score in some way, it's noticed in crucial games. In six playoff games, Laney is averaging 17 points, 5.2 rebounds, on 43.8 percent three-point shooting. Using her toughness, No. 44 excels at driving to the basket with resiliency, shooting 48.2 percent from the field.

Laney scored 20 plus points in three straight games, and helped the Liberty close out the Semifinals against the Connecticut Sun. In two games against Washington in the first round, Laney had back-to back 19 point games.

For this prop, over 22.5 points, rebounds, and assists hit eight of the last ten games, and four of the last game. This betting prop hit three of the five matchups against Vegas, including the Commissioners Cup. In the season series against the Aces, Laney averaged 12.5 points on 41.2 three point shooting.

The Box score doesn't always reveal how valuable a player is for a team. Benijah Laney is known for her defensive prowess, and defensive stops often turn into offense. With the way she's been playing, I fully expect No.44 to hit over 22.5 points, rebounds, and assists in game one.

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

Las Vegas Aces

  • LV Aces: 5-0 in their last 5 games.
  • 9-1 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-19-0
  • O/U Record: 24-16-0
  • 3-2 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 1-3-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 5-4-1 in the last 10 games.
  • 1st in Offensive Rating (113)
  • 3rd in Offensive Rating in the Playoffs (106.9)
  • 1st in Defensive Rating (97.7)
  • 1st in Defensive Rating in the Playoffs (88.4)
  • 1st in Points Per Game (92.8)
  • 2nd in Pace: 98.58
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.3 (2nd)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.2 % (2nd)
  • Three-Point Percentage in the Playoffs: 35.8 % (3rd)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 34.8 (5th)
  • Rebounds Per Game in the Playoffs: 39.8(1st)
  • LV ATS won last 10 games: Seattle (-20), Phoenix (-19), Chicago (-16, -17.5), Dallas (-10)

New York Liberty

  • New York Liberty: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 8-2 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 19-21-0
  • O/U Record: 23-17-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 4-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 7-3 in the last 10 games.
  • 2nd in Offensive Rating (109.6)
  • 4th in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (104.5)
  • 3rd in Defensive Rating (99.4)
  • 4th in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (100)
  • 2nd in Points Per Game (89.2)
  • 5th in Pace: 96.56
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.6 (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.4 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 30.9 % (6th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 37.9 (2nd)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 37.8 (3rd)
  • New York ATS won last 10 games: Phoenix (-12.5), Minnesota (-9), Las Vegas (-2), Connecticut (-7.5), Chicago (-9), Washington (-9.5).
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