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Liberty vs. Sun Betting Odds & Predictions: WNBA Semis Game 3

Sara Jane Gamelli 3365 September 29, 2023 No Comments

With the series tied 1-1, the New York Liberty will matchup with the Connecticut Sun on the road for Game three of the Semifinals. After dropping the first game to the Sun 78-63, New York captured a 84-77 victory in game two. Here, you will find the WNBA betting odds, stats, trends, player prop bets, and predictions for Friday, Sept. 29.

Written and edited by:

Sara Jane Gamelli

(Brandon Todd/New York Liberty)

The series will be a close one

Tonight, is game three of the WNBA Semifinals between the New York Liberty and Connecticut Sun. Best of five games, New York clutched a game two 84-77 victory over Connecticut. Favored by -9.5, New York made adjustments on offense, and defensively to zone coverage.

After the win, Liberty forward Jonquel Jones describe the game as a "do or die situation," With Breanna Stewart winning the MVP hours before tip, the Liberty knew it would be a special night, backed by fans. In a fairly close game, New York stepped up their game play in the second half, and attacked inside the basket. Sabrina Ionescu finished with 21 points, one block, one steal, and five assists. Her ten free throws attempted and made were a playoff career high. Betnijah Laney, held to just three points in game one, was a crucial factor on both ends of the court. Laney finished on 5-7 three point shooting with 20 points.

For the Connecticut Sun, Natisha Hiedeman was limited to just 14 minutes due to an undisclosed illness. Rebecca Allen, a vital factor in game one, was held to 20 minutes due to personal fouls. In their absence, Tiffany Hayes finished with a game high 30 points, and DeWanna Bonner with 19. Alyssa Thomas, who had an incredible season, finished just 2-13 from the field and ten points.

In this article, I will break down the WNBA betting odds, statistics, trends, odds, player prop bets, and predictions. The matchup will begin at 7:30 p.m. ET, at Mohegan Sun Arena, located in Uncasville, Connecticut. If you're betting on the WNBA and interested in watching, the game will air on ESPN2. For the best betting odds, stats and analysis, here is information to know.

WNBA Odds Game 3: New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

WNBA Semifinals Series Odds: New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

New York Liberty -3.5 (-115)

The New York Liberty didn't have a great first game, and were far from perfect in game two. New York limited the shots of Alyssa Thomas, despite a 30 point performance from Tiffany Hayes. Once down by 12 points, New York made the adjustments, especially with zone defense. A deadly three-point shooting team, New York adapted their offensive scheme based off pressure on the perimeter.

Jonquel Jones has been a crucial x-factor in the sense of setting the tempo in the first two games. Often held in the second half, Jones is excellent in using her size and strength down low. Last matchup, we saw Jones have several inside buckets over DeWanna Bonner. No. 35 had nine points in the first half, finishing with a double-double by the end of regulation.

New York swept Connecticut 4-0 in the regular season series

For Connecticut, they will have home court advantage the next two matchups. With a 4-0 regular season sweep, New York is no stranger to their home arena. With the Liberty experimenting with zone and man defense, they must find a way to cover DeWanna Bonner on the wide open perimeter.

The New York Liberty are coming off three days of rest, in which they had a record of 2-0 in the regular season. On those days rest, New York averaged 92 points per game, 43.5 rebounds, and 24 assists. In the playoffs, the Liberty are 1-0 with three days rest, in which they average 90 points a game and 41 rebounds.

Why New York will cover the spread

New York has improved their play in the third quarter, which has been their downfall this postseason. In game one, the Liberty were limited to zero fast break points, and were out rebounded by the Sun. Prior to Tuesday's game, Jonquel Jones briefly talked about the preparation for game two, and their adjustments. "The preparation, it was just humbling in a lot of areas because we watched the film. The film doesn't like obviously, " said Jones. " [Connecticut] exposed us in a lot of ways, and ultimately just watching the game, us as a team, we just saw that we didn't play the style of basketball that we played all year."

New York was able to outscore Connecticut 46-35 in the second half and made adjustments as a team. If Betnijah Laney can get some looks on both sides of the ball, that will be imperative for New York. Several New York players have expressed their urgency to "punch first" while playing at their own pace and style. With Breanna Stewart winning the MVP, it's hard to fade New York here, who's headed into Connecticut with all that momentum.

The Connecticut Sun and New York Liberty are two elite teams

The Connecticut Sun covered the spread in three of the four regular season matchups. Tonight, the spread is lesser at +/- 3.5. New York's 95-90 overtime win was the smallest spread these two teams have seen all season.

Overall, the Connecticut Sun and the New York Liberty are two elite teams. For me, it comes down to momentum, coaching, and experience. Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner are incredible athletes, who are surrounded by a defensive juggernaut team. New York is harder to guard on both the weak and strong side of the ball, as well as the interior. If they continue to make adjustments and not force shots, New York has the upper hand in terms of talent and strength. Tonight will be either a blow out or an extremely close game. I will take my chances on New York to cover the -3.5 spread tonight.

Sabrina Ionescu O 20.5 Points and Assists (-137)

Season Stats: PPG: 17 | FG: 42.3 % | 3 PT: 44.8 % | FT: 87.2 % | REB: 5.6 | AST: 5.4 |STL: 1 | BLK: 

Playoff Stats: PPG: 18.3 | FG: 41.8 % | 3 PT: 42.4 % | FT: 86.7 % | REB: 4.8 | AST: 3.3 |STL: 1

Season Stats vs CT: PPG: 16.5 | FG: 34.5 % | 3 PT: 35.7 % | FT: 100 % | REB: 2 | AST: 3 | STL: 0.5 

Sabrina Ionescu may not have won MVP, however, she's been a constant force for the Liberty all season and into the playoffs. In the postseason, Ionescu is averaging over 18 points a game. One of the bright spots on this struggling offense, No. 20 is shooting over 42 percent from long range this postseason.

In two games against Connecticut in the Semifinals, the Liberty guard is averaging over 16 points and two assists per game. 1-6 from the three, Ionescu has learned how to adapt to the opposing defenses. Driving to the basket and drawing the fouls will be the key for the next matchup. After all, Ionescu made a playoff career high ten free-throw shots on Tuesday.

Why this prop will hit

If you're betting on this prop, Sabrina Ionescu hit over 20.5 points and assists seven of the last ten games, and three of the last five. Time after time, No. 20 has stated she thrives in pressure situations. Look for the Liberty guard to fight around screens, drive to the basketball, and find off ball opportunities. In their 95-90 win over the Sun in overtime, Ionescu finished with 18 points, four assists, on 2-7 three-point shooting. With Bonner matched up with Jones, and Thomas on Stewart, I fully expect Sabrina Ionescu to take charge in some form on Friday.

Season Statistics & Betting Trends

New York Liberty

  • New York Liberty: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 8-2 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 19-21-0
  • O/U Record: 23-17-0
  • 2-3 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 4-1 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 7-3 in the last 10 games.
  • 2nd in Offensive Rating (109.6)
  • 4th in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (104.5)
  • 3rd in Defensive Rating (99.4)
  • 4th in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (100)
  • 2nd in Points Per Game (89.2)
  • 5th in Pace: 96.56
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 80.6 (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 37.4 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 30.9 % (6th)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 37.9 (2nd)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 37.8 (3rd)
  • New York ATS won last 10 games: Phoenix (-12.5), Minnesota (-9), Las Vegas (-2), Connecticut (-7.5), Chicago (-9), Washington (-9.5).

Connecticut Sun

  • CT Sun: 3-2 in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 in their last 10 games.
  • ATS Record: 21-17-2
  • O/U Record: 22-18-0
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games.
  • O/U is 2-3 in the last 5 games.
  • O/U: 5-5 in the last 10 games.
  • 4th in Offensive Rating (103.2)
  • 2nd in Offensive Rating in the playoffs (109)
  • 2nd in Defensive Rating (98.8)
  • 2nd in Defensive Rating in the playoffs (97.1)
  • 4th in Points Per Game (82.7)
  • 10th in Pace: 95.14
  • Opponent Points Per Game: 79 (1st)
  • Three-Point Percentage: 36% (4th)
  • Three-Point Percentage playoffs: 41.9 % (2nd)
  • Rebounds Per Game: 33.4 (6th)
  • Rebounds Per Game playoffs: 34 (6th)
  • Connecticut ATS won last 10 games: Chicago (-5.5), New York (+6), LA (-6.5, -10.5), Indiana (-10), Minnesota (-8.5, -5.5), New York (+8.5, +9.5).

Head-to-head stats: Liberty vs. Sun

Season Matchups:

Game 1: New York 81, Connecticut 65 (New York -6.5, under 164.5)
Game 2: New York 89, Connecticut 81 (New York -4.5, over 168.5)
Game 3: New York 95, Connecticut 90 OT (Connecticut +6, over 166.5)
Game 4: New York 89, Connecticut 58 (New York +7.5, under 160)

Playoffs

Game 1: Connecticut 78, New York 63 (Connecticut +85, under 163)
Game 2: New York 84, Connecticut 77, (Connecticut +9.5, over 158)

  • Connecticut won the regular season series 4-0
  • The Liberty were 3-1 ATS vs. the Sun this season.
  • Game Points (AVG) last 10 matchups: 154
  • New York average points last 10 games: 87
  • Connecticut average points last 10 games: 81

Stay tuned for more WNBA and betting related articles. Click here

Sara Jane Gamelli is a full-time Sportswriter at BallisLife, and Sports Content Creator on Twitch and TikTok. She has a focus on the NBA, WNBA, NCAA Basketball, and the NFL. Sara Jane currently resides in Connecticut with her Cat and Dog. SJ has her undergraduate degree from the University of Connecticut in Economics, with a minor in business administration.

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